05/03/2013 9:57AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday May 4, 2013

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And now for something completely different. Our Pick this week is a bit off our style, but we couldn’t resist it. See below. Meanwhile, a recap of last week shows our Pick last week was a split decision: Oldwick won and paid a generous $6, considering his profile and connections, while Mr. Anonymity, our sneaky-pick, didn’t run a lick. C’est la vie. During the week there were few opportunities for decent BreezeFigs maidens to score, but there were five of them, one each at Calder, Fonner Park, Indiana Downs, Mountaineer and Woodbine (the wealth was spread, indeed). There was even a BreezeFigs exacta in the Tweedside Stakes at Belmont when Bella Castani beat out Exchange Cat for a $47 gimmick payoff. But for now, we concentrate on the question of the day: Who’s our Pick in the Kentucky Derby. As we said, see below, and good luck!

 

Remember to pay attention to two changes we’ve made over the past several years. First, there have been changes in the CLASS EDGE category (at the bottom of the BreezeFigs card) because one sale was eliminated (OBSFEB) and FTFFEB is now in March (FTFMAR), and that moved OBSMAR into a higher class. Also, in the SALE & HIP column: the “HIP” refers to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale.

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: http://www.drf.com/BreezeFigs/Video_Links_BreezeFigs_for_2009_Sales.pdf. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here http://www.drf.com/BreezeFigs/BreezeFigs_&_Stride_Length_Study_Part_I.pdf you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here: http://drf.com/breezefigs/breezefigs_010507.doc.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here:www.biodatatrack.com.

Here's our thoughts for the Kentucky Derby:

There are five BreezeFigs graduates in this year’s Kentucky Derby from last year’s 2-year-old sales, four of which were Group 1 or Group 2, and one who was a playable Group 3 (one or two points below Par at a major sale)—and the latter had an enormous stride length. We will concentrate on these five because any of them could win it, and you should play your tickets accordingly if you are keying on horses who did not come out of these sales. One of us (Jay Kilgore) thinks the one with the best chance of taking the roses is Vyjack, whom he considered one of the top horses at EASMAY last year where he sported a Group 2, three-over-Par profile with a 24.74 foot SL, just a tad under average for colts that day at three-eighths of a mile. And there’s the rub: Very few horses who breeze three-eighths at the sales ever amount to anything because they are slow. Vyjack is not slow, he’s a good horse, and he can do it if his rider is patient from the outside post and stay out of traffic—always the key in this race. Of the two Group 1 runners in here, Normandy Invasion looks to be peaking at the right time and his even-Par profile at KEEAPR with a 24.44 foot SL was accomplished at a quarter mile and was a tad longer than the average SL for that distance. He has the ability to stalk and stay out of trouble and looks to be very serious deep in the stretch. Palace Malice came out of KEEAPR as well, but he breezed one furlong and posted a four-over-Par Group 1 profile with a 24.24 foot SL, a third of a foot longer than average for colts on that synthetic surface. He is widely considered a “synthetic horse” by some pundits, but you never know—if he and Normandy Invasion are close to each other, they will be in the hunt at the end. Then there’s the two from OBSMAR. Itsmyluckyday has done nothing wrong so far considering his Group 2, three-over-Par profile at one furlong where his 23.89 foot SL was a third of a foot longer than average for colts that day at an eighth. He’s a bit less tractable than the others and may be too anxious to last. On the other hand, Revolutionary was a Group 3, two-under Par performer at the same distance on another day, but he posted a whopping 25.19 foot SL, which was 1.56 feet longer than average that day. Now, if you look at him and how he runs, you have to know he is just awful for the first part, and then just starts leaping forward like a gazelle (well, maybe a gazelle crossed with a giraffe), and finds his way out of traffic jams that are always inevitable. And, he’s got Calvin Borel, so there you go. Bottom Line here is that any of these horses could win, and all five of them could finish in the money. We will pony up for keying Vijack with Revolutionary, and throwing the other three in here and there in the gimmicks. Good luck, and remember, stuff happens.

 

rvraynmary More than 1 year ago
I like your description of Revoutionary's race style. Go Borail!! stuckinarizona