05/05/2008 12:00AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix, Saturday, May 3rd Kentucky Derby Special

Email

We’re doing a special Kentucky Derby Quick-Pix today, based on BreezeFigs and stride lengths which we captured by digital video at Churchill Downs during Derby Week. These were compared, if possible, to the BreezeFigs and stride lengths earned at 2-year-old sales last year.

The results are below. Let’s explain what we are presenting—and then you can use this information, if you wish, in handicapping the Derby.

Seven of the 20 starters graduated from these 2-year-old sales. We were able to capture the pre-Derby breezes of six of them and convert the data into BreezeFigs.

Although you will note that these BreezeFigs are considerably lower than those attained at 2-year-old sales, they are viable nonetheless. They are based on uniform conditions for all horses during the week, and the fact that blow-out breezes before a race, while time-sensitive, never put horses under the stress they endure during a breeze at 2-year-old sales, where horses are at their maximum speed. Speed plays a factor in BreezeFigs, but only relative to other horses in the same situation, and this situation was the same for all of them.

We have separated the horses into three sections—clearly outlined below in the left-hand column. We have also highlighted in bold the top three scores in each of the four categories detailing stride length (SL) and BreezeFigs (listed across the top).

Based on these figures, and what we observed on the ground, we think you should pay very close attention to the following four horses, and use them in your Derby gimmicks.

Prior to getting the go-ahead that Denis of Cork was in the race, everyone at Churchill—from backstretch “wise guys” to clockers—commented on how well he was getting over the track. His breeze was perfect and he dragged trainer David Carroll down the backstretch Thursday morning wanting to do more. He is the only horse on the list below to make the top three in all four categories at the sales and Derby Week.

Colonel John has been the horse of consistency with great jogs, and a great work this past weekend, having posted a very long SL—all of his internal numbers were spot on as well. Though not a 2-year-old sales horse, he is very close to Denis of Cork on all our internals. These two are at the top of a very contentious and closely matched heap.

As for gimmick value, Adriano, another horse that did not go through the sales, had a very long SL in his last breeze, and he could clunk up for third. For those who want to play it safe, even though there is a chance he could be a bit too sharp and bounce off his blow-out breeze and have to hustle too fast too early from post 20, Big Brown is definitely a quality horse on our figures—last year and this year. These two could do well finishing up a very good trifecta and superfecta.

For a long-shot bet: Look at the Oaks/Derby double for a partial wheel and consider putting Awesome Chic on the front-end—she is under the radar but has a good record and was a six-over-Par Group 2 at OBSAPR last year.

Hey, folks, enjoy the day and good luck!

Three Best in Each Category Highlighted in BOLD

Stride Length 2yo Sale

BreezeFig 2yo Sale

Stride Length Derby Week

BreezeFig Derby Week

BreezeFigs at 2YO Sale & Derby Week

 

 

 

Court Vision

22.62

63

24.49

55

Denis Of Cork

26.19

70

25.37

51

Big Truck

23.66

62

23.79

51

Big Brown

25.81

67

25.22

50

Visionare

24.30

64

23.77

49

Recapturetheglory

24.51

72

23.40

48

 

 

 

 

 

BreezeFig at 2YO Sale Only

 

 

 

 

Cool Coal Man

23.82

71

n/a

n/a

 

 

 

 

 

BreezeFig Derby Week Only

 

 

 

 

Col. John

n/a

n/a

25.18

54

Adriano

n/a

n/a

25.65

54

Anak Nakol

n/a

n/a

25.50

54

Eight Bells

n/a

n/a

23.89

50

Z Humor

n/a

n/a

25.16

49

Tale of Ekati

n/a

n/a

23.20

45

Smooth Air

n/a

n/a

22.32

45

Z Fortune

n/a

n/a

24.32

44

Pyro

n/a

n/a

23.34

41