05/25/2012 10:29AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday May 26th, 2012


Just to recap our comment on the Preakness last week:  “We have absolutely no opinion on the Preakness where both Bodemeister (FTFFEB11) and I’ll Have Another (OBSAPR11) will be either streets ahead of the field at the finish or somewhere up the track (the Preakness is like that).”  ‘Nuff said.  We will have some comment on this bunch in next week’s column after we are finished recovering from the last 2-year-old sale of the season, EASMAY12, where there were quite a few nice babies paraded around old Timonium.  We shall see what turns up later in the year from this sale, but meanwhile other 2-year-olds have started to come out and from three starters this week, another Group 1 winner emerged—Bustinattheseams at Belmont.  We’ve got a corker today among the babies which we’ll examine, and a very full card among the 3-year-olds that you can try to figure out yourself, so let’s get to it, see below.  Good luck!   

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Betfair Hollywood Park, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 4 ½ Furlongs (Synthetic)

It’s very rare to look over a field of babies this early in the year and come to the conclusion that it may be a key race—well, at least as far as BreezeFigs horses are concerned.  Three of them are in here, all were Group 1 at their sales, and even though their respective stride lengths are not all that spectacular, most of what they did impressed us, including the way they moved.  From virtually every angle, including the “hot hand” one (owned and trained by the I’ll Have Another combo, who put a BreezeFigs baby over at Pimlico two days before the Preakness), you really have to think that Cinco de Mario is the one to beat. He came out of the BARMAR sale with a seven-over-Par profile that featured a 24.93 foot SL, about a quarter foot longer than average.  That provides some perspective when it comes to Tates Humor, who comes out of the same sale at the same distance with a two-over-Par profile that featured a 24.35 foot SL, about a third of a foot below average; he went home unsold (RNA) for 65k.  The other one to look at is Amarish, who comes out of OBSMAR with a one-over-Par profile that was achieved on synthetic, and he had a 23.89 foot SL, about a third of a foot above average—but he was slowing down more than the other two were at the end of their breezes.  So, you have a stand out in Cinco de Mario and a couple of potential gimmick plays here, and a chance to see an early star or two emerge.  Good luck!