05/20/2011 10:29AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday May 21st


Our 2-year-old Pick last week got trapped in a bit of a rough spot but managed to recover nicely to finish a strong second, so tab Mel Beach back.  That performance was outdone at Churchill twice, with two Group 4 winners, one Saturday (Sum of the Parts) and one Thursday (Tarpy’s Goal), bringing the 2-year-old BreezeFigs starters from the 2011 sales record to four winners and four seconds from 12 starters so far—and the good ones are still in the barn (though out Pick below may bring out a star or two).  Meanwhile, the 3-year-olds have been very consistent as well with eight winners during the week, and there’s a good card today to pick over for opportunities in addition to the one we spotlight below.  So, enjoy your ride through the Animal Kingdom and good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pix for Saturday:

Belmont Park, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

August Osage has been sitting on the sidelines for exactly a year after bringing 100k at EASMAY following a perfectly adequate one-over-Par Group 2 performance which was highlighted by a solid 24.31 foot SL—almost three-quarters of a foot longer than average.  If he can settle in and stalk them, he could pop one over for sharp connections here.


Hollywood Park, 6th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 4 ½ Furlongs (Synthetic)

Three solid BreezeFigs colts in this one, and each has a good shot.  Two BARMAR graduates are topped by Tale Be Told, who posted a two-over-Par Group 2 profile at a quarter mile, showing a good 24.83 SL that was .20 foot longer than average.  On the other hand, Scorpion Warrior breezed an eighth, and though his profile was one-under-Par Group 3, it featured a whopping 26.02 foot SL, which was over a foot longer than average that day.  The one to take seriously is Majestic City, whose one-over-Par Group 2 profile at OBSMAR was highlighted by a 24.82 foot SL, more than a foot longer than average that day for colts.  We suspect the OBSMAR sale may have been better overall and they breezed on synthetic, while BARMAR graduates ran on the dirt.  In any case, it looks like a solid exacta gimmick, and maybe even more if the board tells you something.  Good luck!