05/01/2009 12:00AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix, Saturday, May 2-- Kentucky Derby Special

Email

We will dispense with the usual format this week and instead focus on the Kentucky Derby (G1), for which we have gathered sufficient video of workouts at Churchill Downs of all the major contenders with the exception of Dunkirk (caveat disclosed upfront) to come to a pretty strong consensus as to what should happen at the wire, or thereabouts.

We have compiled stride lengths, workout times, motion efficiency, and various other factors from these breezes and came up with a rarefied BreezeFig for each contender and, not surprisingly (considering the general confusion out there), we have determined that this is the toughest Derby to handicap, from any method, in years. One thing for sure is that the horse that most impressed us during the week will not be part of the crowd-Rachel Alexander, who is without question the best 3-year-old in the country, of either sex.

Our Pix, which are listed below, do not necessarily include all the horses with the longest stride lengths. One of the reasons is that some of the long striders are really big horses-and they should have long strides. Other reasons include the fact that some slowed down rather than increased their speed at the end of their works, or they showed very inefficient motion angles-which means their biomechanics are somewhat off for maximum efficiency. And, when you re going 10 furlongs, you'd better be efficient.

All that said, we thought it would be unfair not to inform our readers which of the horses had the longest stride lengths, or were the most efficient. In order, Mr. Hot Stuff, Pioneerof the Nile, Chocolate Candy, Desert Party and I Want Revenge all had stride lengths above 25 feet, with Advice and Musket Man just below. None of these horses are shrimps.

Regal Ransom, Friesan Fire, Papa Clem and Join in the Dance all had stride lengths below 24 feet. These are all average, or slightly below average, horses in size, but Friesan Fire and Regal Ransom are both extremely efficient moving horses, as are Pioneerof the Nile, West Side Bernie and Chocolate Candy.

Friesan Fire worked the fastest of all the horses during the week, which helped him earn the highest BreezeFig-but not by much, over Regal Ransom, who was an picture of efficiency, and Pioneerof the Nile. These three also had the best "Thrust" factors, or the ability to carry their speed forward over a distance of ground.

The bottom line is that of the ones we were able to analyze, there are six horses in this race that come up with BreezeFigs profiles that are "winnable". In order of their ranking (with two ties), they are (1) Pioneerof the Nile; (2) Freisan Fire and Regal Ransom; (3) Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge, West Side Bernie.

We both agree that Regal Ransom is the key to the race. We are very impressed with how he can spot himself, and if he is not fried in a duel on the front end, he will be in the top three at the wire. However, neither one of us is picking him to win. Here are our choices in order:

Bob Fierro: I Want Revenge, Regal Ransom, Friesan Fire, Chocolate Candy.

Jay Kilgore: Friesan Fire, Pioneer of the Nile, Mr. Hot Stuff and Chocolate Candy. (I would really do a five horse box that included Desert Party.)

Good luck!

As for the BreezeFigs routine for maiden races, remember we've changed our format for the 2-year-old sheet. There are two BreezeFigs sheets for each date, one for the 3-year-olds from the 2008 sales (to be posted through June 30th), and one for the 2-year-olds from the 2009 sales. The 2009 sales sheet has a major addition in the SALE column: It's now labeled SALE & HIP, the "HIP" referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse's breeze at that sale.

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the 2009 BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here:

and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs "qualified" runners: You can get a good idea of what qualified BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the .

If you'd like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: .