05/18/2012 10:21AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday May 19th, 2012


This weekend marks the end of the 2012 2-year-olds-in-training season for us in Timonium, Maryland, just up the road from Pimlico where an interesting Grade 1 race will feature two graduates of the 2011 sales.  (There are some more sales but we don’t cover them, we stick to the six “national” ones).  We have absolutely no opinion on the Preakness where both Bodemeister (FTFFEB11) and I’ll Have Another (OBSAPR11) will be either streets ahead of the field at the finish or somewhere up the track (the Preakness is like that).  However, we do know that the crop of 2-year-olds from this year’s sales are starting to peek out from their shedrows one at a time (only 12 have started thus far, three have won).  The BreezeFigs form is holding up pretty well: two of the four Group 1 runners have won (including Pardonmecomingthru, a $35 number at Lone Star who lived up to its name), and another placed second.  The third winner, Ten Plush, worked hard for her money at Pimlico on Thursday, but in the end this filly got there in almost kharmic fashion:  She is owned and trained by the connections of I’ll Have Another.  As for our Pick, slim pickins today but we found a first-time starter with a sneaky good shot, see below.  Good luck!   

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Monmouth Park, 6th Race, Maiden Special Weight, Mile (Turf)

Quite an Attitude may have had one when she breezed at OBSAPR last year, scoring a two-over-Par Group 2 profile with a 24.24 foot stride length, 1.37 feet longer than average for fillies that day.  But she obviously did something wrong during the breeze or shortly thereafter because she was scratched (SCR) before she was scheduled to go through the ring.  She is by a sire whom we loved all along and whose kids love to win, and like the weeds, and the field is hardly mind boggling.  The other BreezeFigs filly, Morethanvictorious, comes out of the same sale with a Group 4, six-under-Par profile with a 21.62 foot SL, almost a foot below average that day.  She seems to like the weeds and might be a gimmick play, but the other one looks pretty good to key.  Good luck!