05/13/2011 11:57AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday May 14th


Saved by the babies!  Our Derby Pix were (probably like yours), abominable, but using our cautionary logic about early baby races, our first 2-year-old Pick of the season resulted in a 1-3 finish at Arlington, with the Group 3 horse getting the prize.  Thus far there have been six 2-year-old BreezeFigs starters from the 2011 sales, two have won, two were second and one was third.  Pay attention early in the year, as we said last week, because sometimes those babies on the BreezeFig and stride length “cusp” can scamper away at five furlongs or less—and overall, BreezeFigs babies do well early, even if some of them disappear early as well.  There’s a ton of maiden races for 3-year-olds on today’s BreezeFigs card for the 2010 sales (remember, you get a separate card for them until June 30th), so have fun.  We’re sticking with the babies today—good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Calder Race Course, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 4 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)

Mel Beach comes into this scamper off a very creditable five-over-Par Group 2 BreezeFigs profile at OBSMAR which featured a slightly under average 23.54 foot stride length.  He has a somewhat choppy action, which means he might be able to get out there in good position which can be an advantage in races that have a short hop to the turn.  If he is not pressured too early he could make it all the way around fast enough to come out on top.  He’s no sure shot but his sire gets fast and early runners, he cost 67k, and he has good connections.  Might get a decent price, but as always, watch the board.  Good luck!