05/11/2012 11:06AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday May 12th, 2012


We will not take any credit for picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby because we really didn't think that would happen.  However, looking over our comments from last week, and taking into consideration the fact that Union Rags is snake-bit (or, just not that good), a BreezeFigs exacta was not impossible, to wit:

"…I'll Have Another, who comes out of the same OBSAPR … (is) a head-scratcher.  He was a one-under-Par Group 4 puppy there with a 22.43 foot SL—more than a half-foot shorter than average that day.  He's obviously got a solid engine in there (cardio system) that enables him to overcome some fairly average efficiency, and he is the kind of one-paced grinder who can clunk up at the end for a piece, but only if the whole thing really falls apart."

"… Bodemeister (came) out of FTFFEB where after posting a solid one-over-Par Group 2 profile (and) was scratched from the sale and never went through the ring.  He had a 24.25 foot SL which was only .11 feet longer than average that day, and he was actually going faster in the last sixteenth of a mile than he did in the first.  This could mean that his motor is also pretty decent and from his past performances that seems to be what has gotten him here." 

Well, the race did kind of fall apart, and there's really no question that both these horses ran their best races and obviously have the motors.  The problem with picking the Derby is not just good handicapping—it's luck, and that has everything to do with the size of the field.  It's just personal opinion here, but the sooner Churchill Downs gets the starting field down to 14, the better for everyone concerned—owners, trainers, jockeys, fans, and especially (most especially) the horses.

As for our first baby pick last week, Miss Empire tossed her head in a slow start and lost all chance but did miss show by only a nose.  Next time, at six furlongs, please.  This week's BreezeFigs card is loaded with slow horses—and one opportunity that sticks out like a modest sore thumb, see below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don't forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It's now labeled SALE & HIP, the "HIP" referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse's breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs "qualified" runners: You can get a good idea of what "qualified" BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There's a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download "2006 Sales Study," or just click right here.

If you'd like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here's our Pick for Saturday:

Churchill Downs, 1st Race, Maiden Claiming (50k), 6  Furlongs (Dirt)

We hate to pick a horse that was sold for the same price that it's entered to be claimed for in its first race, especially a year after going through the ring.  But Can't Prove It may have a decent shot here based on his Group 2 profile at OBSMAR last year.  He was four-over-Par in his BreezeFigs number, and even though his stride length was more than half a foot below average that day, our internal numbers show that he had excellent efficiency and also would probably do well coming off the pace.  If he is allowed to relax and move around the turn instead of rushing to the lead, he could pop one over here.  Be careful, but play. Good luck!