03/04/2011 1:35PM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday March 5th


Last week’s Pick, Ohdaliz, pulled an “oh-duh” and obviously needed the race.  But it was a pretty good week with 10 maiden winners scattered across the cards, most of them playable including a whopping $117 number (Sea Quest) at Fair Grounds and a $23 first time Group 1 winner (Leeta) at Tampa Bay.  The 2011 2-year-old sales season got under way this week at the Fasig-Tipton sale in Florida, at a new venue, Palm Meadows, the training center in Boynton Beach, which is vastly different in virtually every respect than the previous location at Calder in Miami.  The BreezeFigs crew found no deviation in the quality of our video work so we are confident we have gotten off to a great start this season to start compiling the 2-year-old BreezeFigs cards for that sale and the ones that follow that will probably start to pop up here in April.  Meanwhile, we’ve got another scull scratcher this week, below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2010 sales sheets have a major addition in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Santa Anita Park, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)

Leave it to us to give you an excruciating situation in  seven horse field, four of which are BreezeFigs horses, one of which is a potential stand-out and the other three can-do’s. Chico d’Oro has a race under his belt and it was an awesome runner-up effort  that accurately reflected his Group 1 OBSMAR  profile—three-over-Par, and a near 24-foot SL that was a third of a foot longer than average.  He’s likely to be pounded at the windows, but the other three are no slouches.  Start with Rock So Hard, who has disappointed so far and failed to live up to his Group 1, five-over-Par rating at the BARMAR sale.  There he posted a nearly foot longer than average 25.73 SL; he ran super in his July debut and then indifferently, though faster, on the turf in his return last month—a dangerous sign from a clever barn.  The first-timers, however, hold the gimmick keys.  Wilburn earned his Group 2 rating at KEEAPR at three furlongs, a rarely tripped trial at this venue, and he was the only one to do it that day, so he is out there in his own orbit.  He might be OK, but maybe later.  The stinker here is Dubber, who looked really good at OBSFEB, which does not appear in the PP’s because after he earned his Group 1, two-over-Par profile with his half-foot longer than average nearly 24 foot SL, he was scratched before the sale began.  Maybe he nicked himself or something because he showed up in April on the same track at OBSAPR (which does appear in the PP’s) and rolled to a six-over-Par Group 2 profile with a 25+-foot SL that was 1.32 feet longer than average.  The question in this race is Baffert—he trains him and Rock So Hard, so the board may tell you which one is going to be the best key in this totally inscrutable event.

Good luck!