03/30/2012 8:48AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday March 31st, 2012


We have a rule around here that if a BreezeFigs horse doesn't break its maiden in its first four starts it is removed from the BreezeFigs card.  We figure by then its track performance has indicated whether it's a decent bet or a bum compared to its BreezeFigs profile.  Sometimes we get hoisted on our own petard—it happened last week when previous Pick Boat Trip got to the wire first to beat out two of the three horses we liked—Canuletmedowneasy and Currahee—for a nice $88 trifecta (for a buck), but that still didn't salve our wounds when our top Pick, Willie Brown, threw in a stinker in his debut.  Still, we live and learn and overall it was a fairly quiet week—not many horses, but the winners were solid.  Today we have a newbie who looks good, see below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don't forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It's now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse's breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There's a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you'd like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here's our Pick for Saturday:

Tampa Bay, 6th Race, Maiden Special Weight, One Mile (Turf)

One of those Pix that require little thought:  Steel Man, making his debut off a seven-over-Par, Group 2 profile at  OBSAPR last year that featured a 24.64 foot stride length, almost a foot longer than the average for colts that day at a quarter mile.  If he's the same horse today as he was last year, he'll hammer.  The other two BreezeFigs horses have pretty nasty profiles—Hyarima, who breezed at the same sale on the same day but was nine-under-Par, and whose debut was almost encouraging enough to consider him a gimmick play here; and Zen Imperialism, a first time starter whose 13-under-Par performance at the same sale and 19.86 foot SL indicates he was either hurting and just not very good.  He was a15k RNA there and you're better off with the one who sold for 125k, Steel Man.  Good luck!