03/25/2010 11:00PM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix, Saturday March 27th


Sometimes you just have to scratch your head, shrug your shoulders and move on. Sometimes you just throw things at the wall. Last week's Pick falls into the both categories, especially when coupled with the winner of the Florida Derby (G1) later in the card. Though he was nowhere near our top Pix (who all ran poorly), we thought Our Dark Knight (a 325k RNA at FTFFEB following a stunk-out-the-joint BreezeFigs profile) had a shot to be in the gimmick because he had shown in two races that he had some talent-and his $8.80 return proved that the bettors knew that. But he also set up an improbable parlay when his stable mate Ice Box came from Route A1A to mow down the field in the Derby at $43.40. This was the same Ice Box who also stunk out the joint at the FTFFEB sale last year and was scratched (SCR) after breezing because he didn't like the Calder track (or so it was said after the Derby). The thing here is that this is a pattern to watch-it's been going on for a couple of years, so if perchance you see horses from this outfit on a BreezeFigs card with bum profiles, either ignore the race or throw in a saver. There are major complications in trying to explain this situation in a column like this, but be forewarned. On the positive side, there were three "logical" BreezeFigs maiden winners on the same card (Fair Grounds, Tampa Bay and a $21.60 goody in the other maiden at Gulfstream). If you kept good notes, there were also three other stakes winners whose BreezeFigs had qualified them to be early winners last year-Romantic Hideaway at Aqueduct, Devil May Care at Gulfstream and Hot Dixie Chick at Oaklawn. Point is, logic usually overcomes surprises, even on the same card. This week's Pick is a surprise for its location, but it's a logical Pick nonetheless-see below.

Before we get to the business of Pix, the 2009 sales sheet has a major addition in the SALE column: It's now labeled SALE & HIP, the "HIP" referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse's breeze at that sale.

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the 2009 BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs "qualified" runners: You can get a good idea of what "qualified" BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08, won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There's a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the .

If you'd like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: .

A truly contentious race for our Pick this week-good luck!

Penn National, , Maiden Special Weight (Pa.-Breds), 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

We hope to uncover bettable first-time starters in this column, and the best shot we see on today's card is a state-bred event at night where a stick-out named Gator Bay finally gets a chance to show what prompted him to post a three-over-Par, Group 2 profile at EASMAY last year. He showed a very decent 25 foot SL there, which was well over 1.5 feet longer than average for the day, but failed to sell and was RNA'd for 40k. He's been working well, including a bullet last week at this track, so you might not get true value, but you can probably cash a ticket-hopefully. Good luck!