03/25/2011 9:56AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday March 26th


The expression “if it weren’t for bad luck, I’d have no luck at all” smacked us upside the head last week as both our Pix were solidly swacked.  First, Won My Heart at Aqueduct got clobbered at the break and lost action and contact with the field and was not pursued with; then Wind Dancing got clobbered at the start at Oaklawn but made a monster run through the stretch to finish fourth—tab her back next out.  All in all a day we would rather forget.  This week’s card is loaded with wise Pix and ones to avoid, and true to our peculiar viewpoints, we’ve picked another impossible situation…see below and good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2010 sales sheets have a major addition in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Gulfstream Park, 3rd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs (Turf)

Four BreezeFigs fillies, one a first timer, are sprinkled throughout this field of ten, and all of them have a reasonable money shot.  Rail out, first timer Turbo Tweaked earned a four-over-Par Group 1 rating at OBSAPR with a 23.55 foot SL that was 1/8 of a foot below average for the day.  If she can blast out of there, she may be a solid contender all the way around.  Frothy Market earned a six-over-Par Group 2 profile at the same sale, and her SL of 22.75 feet was about 1/6 below average for fillies on that day (different day); she might like the turf after a crummy debut in the slop on the inner track at Aqueduct in December.  Hear Me Roar has an advantage in a race at the distance over the surface where she showed good speed before tiring.  She had a three-over-Par Group 2 profile at OBSMAR with a 22.88 SL, more than half a foot below average at that venue, so she will need to conserve her energy here.  Maya’s Mystery is the mystery here.  She turned in a perfectly acceptable one-under-Par Group 3 performance at KEEAPR with a 22.43 SL (quarter of a foot below average), and then was wheeled out in June and July for two quick and promising starts—and disappeared.  She’s in clever hands, as are all these fillies, but we’re looking for Hear Me Roar and Turbo Tweaked as the keys here, and the other two in the gimmick mix would not be a bad idea.

Good luck!