03/23/2012 9:42AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday March 24th


Greetings from Palm Meadows, the training center near Boynton Beach, Florida, where the third 2-year-old sale will be held this weekend—the Fasig-Tipton sale which, now that it takes place in March will henceforth be known on the 2012 BreezeFigs sheets as FTFMAR, rather than FTFFEB.  Unless it moves back to February or ahead to April in the future, but why linger?  Last week’s Pick was compromised by sloppy weather at Santa Anita, though the second and third place horses were in our Pick.  There were a dozen maiden winners during the week on the BreezeFigs cards, so keep your eyes out for some special overlays daily.  This week we think the weather is clear at Santa Anita, so we’ll revisit it for our Pick, see below. Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Santa Anita, 5th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 1/2  Furlongs (Downhill Turf)

One of those downhill rodeos is on our card today with a first timer, Willie Brown, who looks just as good on paper as anything else in here.  He brought 350k at OBSMAR last year following an even-Par, Group 2 performance where his 23.76 foot SL was about average that day for colts breezing a quarter mile.  He might have a challenge from Canuletmedowneasy who showed in his turf debut here that he is a force to be reckoned with on this course and at this distance, a fair evaluation of his two-under-Par Group 3 profile at OBSAPR where he was slow, but had a setious 25.51 foot SL that was two feet longer than average.  Currahee, the rail horse, showed guts and form in his debut which was pretty much in line with his one-under-Par Group 4 performance at OBSMAR where his 23.59 foot SL was just about a third of a foot below average.  Any of these three could do it, but focusing on both Canuletmedowneasy and Willie Brown is probably where you want to be.  Good luck!