03/16/2012 9:07AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday March 17th, 2012


There are no maidens with Irish names on today’s BreezeFigs card, but there is one in the seventh at Tampa Bay, an allowance, who’s won twice already in his first three starts, so go with Celtic City there if you believe in hunches.  Meanwhile, we were really surprised at last week’s Pick because the horse we did not like, Cigar Street, not only beat out top choices (who ran off the board) but did so as the favorite.  Still, there were four other BreezeFigs maiden winners on that card, and 13 for the week.  In addition, there were stakes winners who sported good BreezeFigs and if you keep good records, you might have cleaned up on Trinniberg at Gulfstream ($17.20) and Slamit at Sam Houston ($9.20), both making their sixth start.  This week we have a slight mystery to solve, see below. Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Santa Anita, 6th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

This is a bit of a mystery.  There are five BreezeFigs horses in here, three of which are making their debuts, one of which, Boompa, is listed as having been sold for 190k at Barretts May (BARMAY), a sale we do not cover.  However, what doesn’t show in your PP’s is that he was also listed as sold at OBSAPR just a few weeks before for 25k—quite a difference, no?—where he sported a one-over-Par, Group 1 profile with a 23.45 foot SL that was half-a-foot longer than average that day.  Another firster, Beau Royale, also came out of that sale with a two-over-Par Group 2 profile with a 23.13 foot SL that was just above average for the day he breezed and he brought 32k—of these two, we’d throw the edge to Boompa.  French Storm, the other first-timer, did not show well at FTFFEB, posting a four-under-Par Group 3 performance with a 22.72 foot SL, almost a foot and a half below average—yet he was sold for 250k; go figure.  These three will have to deal with two who have shown good form in justifying their BreezeFigs profiles.  You Know I Know also came out of OBSAPR (for 22k) where he posted a Group 2 profile at a quarter mile that was one-over-Par and featured a 24.55 foot SL, more than a foot longer than average; he was claimed for 50k in his debut in which he finished third, and is the key here.  Cast a Doubt ran three times in the summer, finished well in his August start at Del Mar, and maybe was gelded since then; his quarter-mile profile at OBSMAR was Group 2, four-over-Par, but with a slightly below average 23.65 foot SL.  He’s a horse you have to use with You Know I Know, and we would definitely throw in Boompa and Beau Royale if the board says “go.”  Good luck!