06/08/2012 10:18AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday June 9th, 2012


The consensus around here is that I’ll Have Another looks to have a decent chance in snagging the Triple Crown, but remember that Union Rags still has the longest stride length in the field and a clear trip might help get him home on top.  You might want to also look at Dullahan, Paynter and Five Sixteen as possible gimmick plays. 

Meanwhile, Cotton’s Point, our gimmick Pick last week, ran creditably to complete a near $3,000 Superfecta, but that doesn’t mean we liked the winner.  Two more babies graduated this week, including Jilly Baylee, a Group 3, but only one-under-Par filly, who made her debut on the first day of the 2-year-old season and came home a winner in her third start.  There were half a dozen 3-year-old winners on the BreezeFigs cards last week, but today we’ll give you a baby triple header, see below.   Good luck!   

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the twoBreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

There are three races on the 2012 BreezeFigs card Saturday—all leading off their respecti ve cards.  Here’s what we think in order of preference:

Betfair Hollywood Park, 1st Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs (Synthetic)

Scarlet Strike was very impressive at OBSMAR where she came home with a seven-over-Par, Group 1 BreezeFig profile with a 24 foot SL, a foot above average at two furlongs for fillies that day.  She will be heavily favored, so key her.

Parx Racing, 1st Race, Maiden Special Weight, 4 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)

Back to Class zipped a quarter in 21.1 at OBSAPR with a 23.56 foot SL, about a quarter foot longer than average that day for fillies, which earned her a two-over-Par Group 2 BreezeFigrating; you might get a decent price on her, so use her.

Arlington Park, 1st Race, Maiden Special Weight, 4 ½ Furlongs (Synthetic)

Stormin Monarcho showed a very decent 24.09 foot SL at an eighth at OBSMAR, but was slowing down a bit which penalized him to a two-under-Par Group 3 BreezeFig.  Still, it doesn’t look like there are very many world beaters here, so you might want to use him as well.

Good luck!