06/29/2012 9:41AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday June 30th, 2012


Busy week on both fronts—eight 2-year-old BreezeFigs winners in 20 races, including our Pick of last week, Itsmyluckyday, who wasn’t favored even though he paid $4.40 (and his stable mate Pro Prospect, whom we also liked, ran a good third).  There were five 3-year-old winners as well, so the dual cards are offering great opportunities to cash in more frequently.  Today’s cards are a mixed bag with some stakes on the baby docket, but we did find two by sires who were somewhat controversial racehorses who are sending out their first starters this year.  Play carefully, see below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

There are two maiden races on the card which feature first-timers by first-time sires:

Churchill Downs, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

Stretching out to six furlongs might be what’s best for a daughter of Big Brown, and Brown Eyes Blue has the BreezeFigs profile to run over her rivals in the stretch.  Though she scored only a Group 2 even-Par on the fig, she showed a 24.84 foot stride length in her eighth-mile breeze at KEEAPR, which was 1.54 feet longer than average for fillies.  Obviously not a shrimp, she is in good hands and could score at first asking here.

Calder Race Course, 5th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

Another six furlong test brings out the first from the “Sixteen Million Dollar Man,” The Green Monkey, and the optimistically named The Best Monkey has a shot here based on his OBSAPR profile.  He punched a Group 2 one-over-Par ticket with a 24.35 foot SL, almost a foot longer than average for colts that day at an eighth.  On the other hand, Thunder Calls earned an even-Par Group 2 fig at the same distance on the same track at OBSMAR, but his SL was 23.04 feet, more than half-a-foot shorter than average at that sale.  This could be an interesting race and you may get value on both of these.

Good luck!