06/26/2008 11:00PM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix, Saturday, June 28th


Before we go any further, be forewarned—as has been our practice in the past, the BreezeFigs card for 3-year-olds will no longer be available effective Tuesday, July 1st. We do this for two reasons: There are precious few first-or-second-time 3-year-old starters that come out after that, and we have found in our research that this is about the time of the year that a BreezeFig record racked up perhaps 16 months earlier starts to become irrelevant for most handicapping. Our last 3-year-old Pick of the season, below, reflects that dilemma well.

However, that leaves you plenty of opportunity to spend more time handicapping the baby races, and on that score we did fairly well last week when our second choice, Bridge to Gold, posted an $11.80 payoff at Calder to kick off a week in which five BreezeFigs-qualified babies won, including a Group 1, $41 score at Presque Isle.

That said, let’s get going.

Remember, there’s a new look to our sheets for the sales of 2008—we have added SURFACE as a new category to tell you whether the horse breezed on a dirt (D) or synthetic (S) track. There are four (S) sales this year—OBSFEB, OBSMAR, OBSAPR and KEEAPR; and three D sales—FTFFEB, BARMAR and EASMAY. Just to add some more insight to your handicapping.

Also, our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what "qualified" BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the on the .

If you'd like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website, .

Here’s what to look for this Saturday—good luck!

Belmont Park, , Maiden Claiming (40k to 45k), 6 Furlongs (Turf)

The weather forecast is dicey for the weekend, and if this one comes off the grass it’s likely to retain most of the field, including (we hope) Whistle a Tune, one of only two first-time starters on the entire BreezeFigs 3-year-old card. This colt racked up an even-Par Group 2 profile at EASMAY last year, but he did it with a 23-foot SL that was a full foot below average for that day, which makes him a risky stand-alone. However, horses like this often do better on turf or slop where the surface is more conducive to quickness, and he’s been showing a little of that in the morning. Play carefully, but play him.

Calder Race Course, , Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)

With four baby races, all of which have BreezeFigs horses entered, this is the one that might offer the best value with three OBSAPR graduates. Im a Tigger Too has had two rough starts, and will probably be well bet. He was a SCR from the sale after he breezed a respectable one-over-Par Group 1 at three furlongs, but he did it with a below average SL, and we are not totally enamored of horses that breeze three furlongs at 2-year-old sales. We are more inclined to go along with Mike’s Kong who comes out of the same sale with a four-over-Par Group 2 profile that includes a 24-foot-plus SL, which is well over a foot longer than the average at two furlongs that day. Like Im a Tigger Too, Another Manuel R. went three panels and had a serious two-foot above average SL that day, but his BreezeFigs came up four below Par, which means he was slowing down, and he might be a big horse, which could explain the SL (check him out in the paddock). He might be a suck up gimmick play under the other two.