06/22/2012 1:13PM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday June 23rd, 2012


Overall, not a bad week—though our baby Pix stunk.  There were eight maiden winners on the 3-year-old cards, including three on Thursday and a $99 bomb at Belmont on Sunday; and four maiden winners on the 2-year-old cards, including both stakes winners at Hollywood.  The latter were Miss Empire, our Pick a few weeks ago who got off slow and didn't win, but broke her maiden in her second start; and Amarish, whom we also touted in his debut (but didn't pick on top), very impressive in his race.  Today's cards are pretty chock full, and the 2-year-old card is loaded with some decent BreezeFigs horses whose stride lengths are below average.  Horses like these may have short, quick strides, but they need good cardio systems to keep them going in races; careful where you place your bets.  We've sorted one race out on each card, and ironically both are at the same track, see below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don't forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It's now labeled SALE & HIP, the "HIP" referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse's breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs "qualified" runners: You can get a good idea of what "qualified" BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There's a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download "2006 Sales Study," or just click right here.

If you'd like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

There are two maiden races at Monmouth Park, one for 2-year-olds and the other for 3-year-olds, that look interesting:

For 2-year-olds:
Monmouth Park, 1st Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs (Dirt)

Two of the three BreezeFigs boys in this race are from the Eddie Plesa barn, but run under different owners.  The  logical choice, Itsmyluckyday, already started, slowly, but managed to get up for the place and probably will take a pounding at the windows.  He's a three-over-Par Group 2 baby from OBSMAR with a 23.89 foot SL, which was about a third of a foot longer than average that day.  His stablemate, first timer Pro Prospect, breezed the same day at OBSMAR and secured a two-over-Par Group 2 rating—but his SL as over a foot shorter than his stablemate.  He's got the rail, too, and that could be OK for a quick mover—if he gets off well and sustains his cadence. Write a Song comes out of the same race as Itsmyluckyday and in that one justified his Group 3, two-under-Par rating at OBSAPR where his 22.15 foor SL was a foot shorter than average.  Gotta watch the board on the two Pleasa horses, but Itsmyluckyday is the key all around.

For 3-year-olds:
Monmouth Park, 3rd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

It's not often that this happens in June of a horse's 3-year-old career, but first timer Caddo Lake shows up here as the fastest horse at OBSAPR last year where his 9.4 second breeze for an eighth and 23.67 foot SL (about a quarter foot longer than average) tumbled out into a sixteen-over-Par Group 1 rating and a high mark on the way he moved.  No wonder he brought 100k.  But, as Desi Arnaz would say, "Lucy, ‘splain."  Where's he been?  Obviously to the repair shop, but if he can walk and run and sustain what is in that tank, he could be an overlay.  On the other hand, watch the board and play cautiously.

Good luck!