06/18/2009 11:00PM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix, Saturday, June 20th


Some housekeeping first: We will not be publishing a column next Saturday because we will be traveling both Friday and Saturday. When we return, our column on July 4th will be the first of the year without 3-year-old Pix, because we end the 3-year-old cards on June 30th as always (if a horse hasn't broken its maiden by then, we can t really help it).

Now, as far as our Pix last week: Bounty Heroes fooled us and stayed at Belmont to run (fourth), but the other half of our gimmick play, Strong Commitment, just failed to catch the odds-on favorite by a nose but did complete a $27 exacta. The 2-year-olds showed predictable form, but we did tout you that Peace at Dawn was the one to watch, and he blew away his opposition and looked very serious at a generous $6.80. Several of the AE s from that race are back today along with our other choice, Endofconversation, and the race is filled with so many BreezeFigs horses of high caliber that it is likely to be a key race at Calder this year.

Before we get to the business of Pix, we remember we've changed our format for the 2-year-old sheet. There are two BreezeFigs sheets for each date, one for the 3-year-olds from the 2008 sales (to be posted through June 30th), and one for the 2-year-olds from the 2009 sales. The 2009 sales sheet has a major addition in the SALE column: It's now labeled SALE & HIP, the "HIP" referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse's breeze at that sale.

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the 2009 BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs "qualified" runners: You can get a good idea of what qualified BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08, won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There's a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the .

If you'd like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: .

Here's our last 3-year-old Pick of the year, and another impossible 2-year-old challenge. Good luck!


Colonial Downs, , Maiden Special Weight, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Outer Turf)

Two first-time starters here are the only BreezeFigs horses in the field, and they have some credentials for gimmick players at least. Augusta Dude was scratched from the OBSFEB sale after breezing, and this pricey (120k) yearling chalked up a five-over-Par, Group 1 BreezeFigs profile there, on synthetic, with a 24.9 foot SL that was nearly a foot longer than average. On the other hand, Ali Money made his mark slightly lower at EASMAY where he was a 12k RNA based on his Group 3, one-under-Par BreezeFigs profile on dirt. But he showed a 23.8 foot SL, which was a foot longer than average that day, and he deserves your consideration as well.

2-Year-Olds: Churchill Downs, , Maiden Special Weight, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)

There's a plethora of maiden 2-year-old races on the BreezeFigs card this week all over the country, and most of them are completely inscrutable, filled with Group 1 and Group 2 potential stars, and this one is no exception. There are three first-timers and one pricey second-timer who did well in his debut, so pay attention to the board. The two Group 1 horses, Beech Ridge and Southern Danger, had similar 24+ foot SLs at KEEAPR and OBSMAR, respectively (both over half-foot longer than average), but Southern Danger was 11-over-Par in his BreezeFigs profile while Beech Ridge was just even-par in his. Coal Fired came out of the same sale as Southern Danger with a Group 2, five-over-Par profile that featured a 25.5 foot SL, which was 1.5 feet longer than average, so he looks like a serious play as well. Westrock Gold ran into a tiger in his debut, but still ran to what is expected of his even-Par Group 2 profile at FTFFEB on the dirt, where his 23.5 foot SL was a half-foot better than average. This 270k RNA may be over-bet here, which means the other three could give you some real value. Watch the board and good luck.