06/17/2011 11:12AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday June 18th


Our Pix last week at Hollywood got totally blown out of the water.  Less said the better.  We’ve got a double header today to try to make up for it, but first some housekeeping.  There will be no column next week—we’ll be traveling on assignment and it’s pretty hard to file from the Buenos Aires airport.   Secondly, the last 3-year-old card of 2011 will be uploaded on June 30th because as has been our practice, we don’t see much overall purpose in posting 2-year-old BreezeFigs from the previous year if they haven’t done much by the end of June.  We know some of you want us to continue posting them, but we have to stick with what we think is best and concentrate on the babies from this year—and they are starting to tumble out of their stalls more frequently now.  So, we’ll see you in two weeks, and check below for our final 2010 Pick and one for 2011.  Best of luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pix for Saturday:


Colonial Downs, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Turf)

Weird set of circumstances for this race:  The only two BreezeFigs fillies are first-timers with essentially the same profiles from OBSAPR, and they are part of an entry. Lyr checked in with a three-over-Par Group 1 profile that featured a 23.43 foot SL, just about average for fillies that day at a quarter mile—and she was not sold (RNA) for 19k.  Corpus Christi Bay breezed an eighth three days later and her one-under-Par Group 3 profile featured a 23.14 foot SL that was almost a quarter foot longer than average for fillies that day at that distance.  They went on synthetic there, they get turf here, and they might be worth a gimmick bet unless the board tells you otherwise. 


Churchill Downs, 7th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs (Dirt)

This is one of those “we shall see what we shall see,” events because there are two BreezeFigs horses here and one of them, Whinston, is going to get all the money.  He was the sale topper at 625k at BARMAR where his three-over-Par Group 1 profile featured a 25.47 foot SL on the dirt, more than half a foot longer than average for colts that day.  Everyone was all over him at the sale, and he should be hammered down to odds-on once the bettors get wind of his background.  On the other hand, Cane Swagger attracted a measly $8,500 final bid at OBSAPR, which is odd for his pedigree and his BreezeFigs profile.  He was a Group 3 and only one-under-Par and had a 24.11 foot SL, which was well over half a foot longer than average for colts that day at an eighth on synthetic.  He might not get any play at all and could be worth a suck up gimmick play.  Good luck!