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BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday June 16th, 2012
Before we get onto our usual review and Pix, we have a bit of housekeeping. We usually end the uploads for the 3-year-olds on June 30th because the 2-year-olds have usually been filling enough races by then. Well, as Don Ameche would say, “Things Change.” The 2-year-old season has begun slowly because they are just not filling races and we’re just going to go along with the trend and keep both cards running, ending the 3-year-olds on the day Saratoga closes (September 3rd). An experiment in a way, but one that may also see an increase in the number of first-time starters among the 3-year-olds over years past. Certainly, this week’s cards reflects that.
As for last week’s prattle (to quote Harvey Pack), we shall note the part of our comment after editing out the reference to I’ll Have Another (the column went to bed before his injury was announced): “…but remember that Union Rags still has the longest stride length in the field and a clear trip might help get him home on top. You might want to also look at Dullahan, Paynter and Five Sixteen as possible gimmick plays.” It should also be noted that Union Rags did not have the kind of clear trip we were talking about, but he did make best use of his stride length, as did Trinniberg, another BreezeFigs horse with a very long SL, in the Woody Stephens Stakes.
Meanwhile, our 2-year-old Pix last week showed promise, with Stormin Monarcho running away at a $22 number at Arlington, but the other two coming up short; both of them, Scarlet Strike and Back to Class, should be tabbed back. Meanwhile, in addition to Stormin Monarcho there were five other 2-year-old BreezeFigs winners last week—that means they won six of the 12 races in which they appeared, and payoffs were in the double digits for four of them. There were also a half dozen maiden winners on the 3-year-old cards. Today’s 2-year-old card has three stakes on it, and two interesting maiden opportunities which we cover below, and we’re throwing in another from the 3-year-olds in what should be a wild race. Good luck!
Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales. Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.
Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale.
The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.
Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.
If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.
Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.
There are two maiden races on the 2012 BreezeFigs card Saturday that look interesting:
Canterbury Park, 4th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs (Dirt)
Ty’s Private Betty posted a five-over-Par, Group 1 profile at OBSAPR with a 23.48 foot SL, a third of a foot longer than average for fillies at one eighth that day. We liked the way she moved, but she only brought $13k. Still, she’s here and eminently playable.
Calder Race Course, 10th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs (Dirt)
Cat Five Hurricane posted a six-over-Par Group 2 profile at OBSAPR, but his 23.10 foot SL was a half-foot shorter than average. He’s entered as part of an entry with another horse who’s already run four times, so he might just be filling out the race. We like his sire, though, and something ought to figure here.
And on the 2011 BreezeFigs card, this looks interesting:
Betfair Hollywood Park, 6th Race, Maiden Special Wight, 6 Furlongs (Turf)
Four BreezeFigs horses in this race on that weird turf course, three of them first-time starters, and the fourth one, Falcon’s Throne, has already lived up to his Group 4 profile at OBSAPR last year. Of the first-timers, Dashing Ash stands out on BreezeFigs and pedigree—he posted a three-over-Par Group 2 profile at OBSAPR with a 24.50 foot SL, well over 1.5 feet longer than average that day; he’s by a sire whose offspring love turf and hooked up on the outside where he might stay out of trouble. Northern Force comes out of the same sale on the same day with just a teensie- weensie lower profile, two-over-Par Group 2, 23.59 foot SL. Might be ready to pounce at first asking. U S Citizen was even-Par, Group 2 at OBSMAR with a 23.33 foot SL, more than half-a-foot shorter than the average that day, but he might be up to this task on the weeds. These three look very gimmick oriented and you might want to key Dashing Ash and Northern Force.