06/10/2011 10:35AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday June 11th


Once again a less than stellar start compromised our Pick last week, but it was a weak one in the first place.  Four winners did pop up during the week on the 2-year-old cards, at Calder, Golden Gate, Penn National and Prairie Meadows, which is a pretty good percentage from a dozen races during that period.   The 3-year-old cards were scattered with a has-been or never-will-be here and there, but there were five good winners during the week, including two short-priced ones at Lone Star Park.  This week we’ll stick with the babies since there aren’t many first-timers on the 3-year-old card (though our Pick from a couple of weeks ago, August Osage, is worth a serious look in the second at Belmont Park).  The 2-year-olds are starting to come out of the woodwork, so we will pay attention to them now, see below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Hollywood Park, Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs (Synthetic)

There are five maiden races on today’s card, three of which have multiple BreezeFigs entrants with good profiles (at Calder, Hollywood and Woodbine). The one that may have the most likely impact on the future is at Hollywood where two of the three were RNA’d at their respective sales and therefore need to be exposed, so to speak.  Hurry Home Clover earned a six-over-Par Group 1 profile at BARMAR where his exceptional 26.53 stride length was more than a foot and a half longer than average for the day—and he was bought back for 110k.  Those long SL’s at this sale can sometimes be deceptive because of the track’s configuration, but that is still impressive and he needs to be considered as does Tale Be Told, whom we picked a couple of weeks ago but was compromised at the start.  He comes out of the same sale with a more modest 24.83 foot SL, which was just above average but he still chalked up a good two-over-Par Group 2 profile overall.  Sandwiched between them is Big Bad Barry, who was taken back home for 115k at FTFFEB after posting five-over-Par Group 2 effort with a 24.48 foot SL, about a third of a foot longer than average for colts that day at that distance.  Now, complicating this race is the fact that all three of those colts breezed on dirt, and this race is on synthetic.  Also, Big Bad Barry comes out of a sale which was not held at Calder, but rather up the Turnpike at Palm Meadows, where the track is decidedly different.  But the graduates have done OK so far on dirt and synthetic, and he may be the best way to go here—but the other two are definite considerations for gimmicks.  Good luck!