07/06/2012 9:13AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday July 7th, 2012


In addition to scoring with one of our 2-year-old Pix last week (Brown Eyes Blue at Chruchill in an impressive wire-to-wire performance at $7.60), the 2-year-old BreezeFigs cards delivered seven other maiden winners during the week at Arlington, Belmont, Calder, Delaware, Hollywood, Lone Star and Mountaineer.  The 2-year-olds are starting to come out in greater numbers and they are providing very good opportunities because it looks like this crop is maintain at the races the kind of quality we saw at the sales.  The 3-year-olds were no slouches either, with six maiden winners at Belmont (3), Hollywood, Monmouth and Presque Isle.  This week we split the difference, one Pick for each crop, and both in California, see below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

There is one race on each card which offers potential value from first-time starters:

Pleasanton, 9th Race, Juan Gonzales Memorial Stakes, 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)

Rarely will we venture into a stakes race to pick a maiden winner, but this modest event has two nice prospects that could make things interesting.  Both Honest Desire and Island Frolic come out of OBSAPR with virtually identical BreezeFigs profiles at one-eighth, but on separate days.  Both were two-over-Par Group 2 with Honest Desire breezing in 10.0 and scoring a 23.87 foot SL, which was .71 feet longer than average for fillies that day.  Island Frolic posted a time of 10.2 and a 23.30 foot SL, which was .68 foot longer than average for fillies the next day.  Both of them have good connections and may be good gimmicks or keys.

Betfair Hollywood Park, 4th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Turf)

Whatever took him so long to get to the races, let’s hope it’s not enough to compromise the BreezeFigs profile Gold Ranger put up at OBSAPR last year.  This large colt motored in 21.2 to post a two-over-Par Group 2 profile at a quarter mile with a 25.07 foot SL, more than two feet longer than average for colts that day at a quarter.  He could be something special, or just another  coulda-shoulda-woulda, so watch the board and observer.

Good luck!