07/29/2011 9:44AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday July 30th


Out of the truly inscrutable can come the obvious, as was the case with our Pick last week.  The horse we really liked, Secret Circle, won nicely and paid a very generous $6.80, to kick off a BreezeFigs exacta and trifecta.   While we weren’t quite convinced that runner-up Basmati could duplicate his debut, he overcame what is a short stride with good efficiency, and show horse Tummel did show us his profile was worth looking at.  In all, it was a super week with 13 BreezeFigs maiden winners at Arlington, Calder (2), Colonial, Del Mar (2), Monmouth (3), Mountaineer, Parx, Saratoga and Woodbine.  We’re into mid-summer madness now and today’s card has 17 maiden races at 13 tracks to consider, including our bi-coastal Pix below. Good luck!

Meanwhile, up in this continent the 2-year-old season is well under way and a half-dozen BreezeFigs horses broke their maidens, all of which were very playable.  While the 3-year-old season is officially over for us, there are two cards left over for July 1st and 2nd which are on www.drf.com so you might want to have a look at them, too, but the 2010 cards will disappear this weekend.  For now, let’s concentrate on the babies, including our spotlight race below, one of several inscrutable events on Saturday’s card. Best of luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pix for Saturday:

Monmouth Park, 5th race, Maiden Speical Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)

Three BreezeFigs fillies, one of which has started and lived up to her six-under-Par Group 4 profile at OBSAPR (Morethanvictorious), whom you can probably throw out because there’s another one in here by her sire, More Than Ready, who looks like she will be tough to beat.  That would be Ready Signal, who pummeled the track at OBSMAR with a seven-over-Par Group 1 performance that featured a 25.20 foot stride length—two feet longer than the average for fillies that day.  If she doesn’t manage to make it, however, you should give consideration to Lawless Miss, whose profile is somewhat similar even though she only posted a Group 2 even-Par profile based on her breeze the next day.  However, she had a 25.86 foot SL, which was almost two-and-a-half feet longer than average for that day, and that puts her into the definite can-do category.  These two could put on a show if they stay out of trouble.

Del Mar, 4th race, Maiden Speical Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Synthetic)

This one has five BreezeFigs fillies in it, three of which have started and each of them has a shot, but we’re looking at the first timer Regal Betty here to outrun them all.  She posted a four-over-Par Group 1 profile at OBSMAR where her 24.07 foot SL was more than half-a-foot longer than average for that day.  That puts her at a competitive level with Cascina whose first race was good, reflecting that she could improve on her three-over-Par, Group 2 rating at OBSAPR where her SL was 24.22 feet on the same synthetic surface, and that was 1.56 feet longer than average.  However, the average was much lower in that sale because the quality is lower.  These two look pretty good, and you can bet that both Duality and Candy and Thunder, who both disappointed in their debuts despite good BreezeFigs profiles, might mix it up as well.  Firster Wade County looks to need a softer spot.  Good luck!