07/01/2011 10:14AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday July 2nd


We are back from our foray to Argentina where we were very busy analyzing horses at the racetrack and farms.  We had a wonderful day at San Isidro racetrack for the country’s version of the Breeders’ Cup, (Carreras de las Estrellas)—20 races, including six Group 1’s, one of which (the Mile) was won by Cafrune, who was bred by our host, Haras El Paraiso.  He was sired by Belmont Stakes winner Colonial Affair, and is the second Mile winner bred by the farm, the first being Bahiaro who is by New York-Bred champion Incurable Optimist, who was the leading sire in Argentina a couple of years ago.  Ah, the wonders of free trade!  The weather for the Estrellas was like it often is at Churchill Downs or Belmont Park for the Breeders’ Cup—cloudy, cold and a bit windy, but a grand time was had by all.

Meanwhile, up in this continent the 2-year-old season is well under way and a half-dozen BreezeFigs horses broke their maidens, all of which were very playable.  While the 3-year-old season is officially over for us, there are two cards left over for July 1st and 2nd which are on www.drf.com so you might want to have a look at them, too, but the 2010 cards will disappear this weekend.  For now, let’s concentrate on the babies, including our spotlight race below, one of several inscrutable events on Saturday’s card. Best of luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pix for Saturday:

Churchill Downs, 8th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 4 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)

Here we have a mad dash with four BreezeFigs horses—one Group 1 and three Group 2.  As always in these events, post position and/or luck at the gate may make all the difference, but there is likely to be a ton of action for Irbywood, a six-over-Par Group 2 beast who posted a 26.17 foot SL at KEEAPR on synthetic, nearly 2 ½ feet longer than average that day for colts.  No wonder he was sold for 625k.  But this is the same outfit that sent out another high priced one, Whinston, who failed as our Pick in our last edition two weeks ago at this track, so be careful here.  We kind of lean toward Next Right Thing, who comes out of the more work-a-day OBSAPR venue with a solid four-over-Par Group 1 profile that featured a 24.35 SL, a foot longer than average, also on synthetic—he’s very efficient even though he was not sold (RNA) for 42k.  The other two were Group 2’s and also RNA’s: Grand Encounter breezed on the turf at FTFFEB where his even-Par 23.23 SL was just a tad under average, and he RNA’d for 60k.  Lucky Dan was one-over-Par at OBSMAR where his 23.58 SL was about a third of a foot shorter than average and he went home unsold for 45k.  There you have it—four BreezeFigs horses from four different sales, none of which breezed on the dirt but each of which is capable of taking off and waltzing home.  Over to you.  Good luck!