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BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday July 23rd
Who knew? When we touted you on Indian Assault and Evangeline Downs last week we were pretty sure he’d be a good gimmick play, and at almost 7-to-1 he looked tasty all around. Unfortunately, he was second choice at those odds and even though he did finish a good second to the odds-on winner, the $6.60 exacta may not even have paid for a plate of gumbo. So much for little favors. In any case, with BreezeFigs horses winning two of the three maiden races at Del Mar on the opening two days, and Saratoga open, we are moving into high summer season. The card today is all over the place, with Saratoga’s lone baby race (the second) featuring one of our failed previous Pix, Whinston, who should give a much better account of himself here. But we’ve chosen to stick with Del Mar, where the race below is loaded with BreezeFigs horses and totally inscrutable. Good luck!
Meanwhile, up in this continent the 2-year-old season is well under way and a half-dozen BreezeFigs horses broke their maidens, all of which were very playable. While the 3-year-old season is officially over for us, there are two cards left over for July 1st and 2nd which are on www.drf.com so you might want to have a look at them, too, but the 2010 cards will disappear this weekend. For now, let’s concentrate on the babies, including our spotlight race below, one of several inscrutable events on Saturday’s card. Best of luck!
Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales. Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.
Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale.
The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.
Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.
If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.
Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.
Here’s our Pix for Saturday:
Del Mar, 3rd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Synthetic)
Seven BreezeFigs horses, two of which have started, three of which are throw-outs, and a first-timer on the rail likely to be heavily played because of his connections, make this one a mess. The one on the rail, Secret Circle, is the only Group 1 beast in here, and he earned that rating with a five-over-Par performance at OBSMAR where his 24.50 foot SL was three-quarters of a foot longer than average that day. He is obviously the gimmick key. Soul Saver comes out of the FTFFEB sale where he was a 170k RNA (not sold) after posting a decent two-over-Par Group 2 profile, but that featured a 23.47 foot SL that was almost three-quarters of a foot below average for the day, but that was on dirt; synthetic may help here. Spit Ball showed good form with a four-over-Par Group 2 profile at the less tony OBSAPR sale, where his SL of 23.16 feet was just below average. Also coming out of that sale were Tummel and Basmati, both Group 3 horses who have started once each and done OK. Tummel was one-under-Par at an eighth of a mile with a 23.78 foot SL that was almost three-quarters of a foot longer than average; Basmati was four under Par at a quarter mile with a SL of 21.95 that was over a foot below average. Good Mojo comes out of the BARMAR sale with a four-under-Par Group 3 with a very 22.74 foot SL that was more than two feet below average, so he looks very risky. And, of course, the horse Hollywood types with long comedic memories is going to play just for fun, Guidopanzini, could be the joker. He chalked up an even-Par Group 2 rating at OBSAPR with a 22.92 foot SL that was almost a half-foot below average, but he could be in the mix at the end along with Secret Circle, Soul Saver and Tummel. Good luck!