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BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday July 21st, 2012
All is right with the world—Saratoga and Del Mar are both open, and each has a super maiden race for 2-year-olds on today’s card (see below). As for last week’s Pick, let’s just say that we picked the wrong race—our selection was a stinker at Prairie Meadows, but three of the other four maiden races on the card were won by BreezeFigs horses. One of those (Brown Almighty, $11.40) was a contender on his profile, while the other two (Another Concerto at Charles Town, $2.60, and I’m in Fashion at Evangeline, $11.60) were worth a shot given the conditions of the race and the quality therein. Point is: Get the card, look over our selection, and then look where there are other opportunities—and use the information there to review their breezes on the websites of the sales companies. Wrapping up, in a light week for entries on both cards, there were five 3-year-old maiden winners and seven juvenile maiden winners—that’s not a bad percentage. Let’s see what’s happening today, see below. Good luck!
Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales. Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.
Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale.
The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.
Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.
If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.
Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.
Both maiden 2-year-old races at Saratoga and Del Mar are chock full of BreezeFigs horses—and pay attention to the others on the card as well, especially Arlington:
Saratoga, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)
Six BreezeFigs horses here, two Group 1 and four Group 2, five first-timers, and Volastic, who ran well in his debut, should be a contender based on his OBSAPR Group 2 profile of four-over-Par and 25.46 foot SL (he was a 34k RNA). But he meets two others from that sale with very good profiles as well: Spurious Decision, six-over-Par Group 1 and Exploring, one-over-Par Group 2, both with longer-than-average SLs of 24+ feet. Holden On did OK at OBSMAR to rack up a one-over-Par Group 1 profile with a SL that was almost a foot shorter than the above three, while Honorable Dillon had a very short 21.85 foot SL at FTFMAR, which raises eyebrows here. Well Lawyered was scratched out of KEEAPR after an even-Par, average SL breeze, and may suck up something here. But we’d key Volastic with Spurious Decision and Exploring right behind.
Del Mar, 6th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Synthethic)
Seven (count’em, seven!) BreezeFigs horses here, two Group 1, three Group 2, and one each Group 3 and Group 4, but the one who stands out is Gabriel Charles, one of four here from OBSAPR with solid profiles and stride lengths. He was seven-over-Par, Group 1 and had a 24.32 foot SL, well over a foot longer than average. But Rolling Fog and Irish Surf (who was scratched after breezing two furlongs) were both two-under-Par Group 2 at the sale, had similar stride lengths and ratios. A Red Tie Day had a shorter SL at the same day Rolling Fog breezed. Ukraine James put in a 25 foot SL, a third of a foot longer than average, at BARMAR, where his performance put him at Group 2 even-Par, and has the right connections. President Nico comes out of the same sale with a five-under-Par Group 4 profile and a foot-shorter-than-average SL, while Outside Nashville was OK at OBSMAR with a Group 3, one-under-Par performance that included a 23.66 foot SL, basically average. This is a toss-up, but we would go with Gabriel Charles as a key and a dartboard for the rest.