07/13/2012 10:53AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday July 14th, 2012


Our 3-year-old Pick was scratched last week and one of our 2-year-old Pix did manage to get a piece of the action in a stakes race that was won by a real hot number, and the rest of the week was quite decent considering there were few opportunities on both cards each day.  There were five maiden winners on the 3-year-old cards, including both maiden races at Belmont on Thursday. There were seven winners on the 2-year-old cards, including Abundance of Class, a Group 1 firster who not only paid $14.20 at Presque Isle on Tuesday but also led home two Group 2 BreezeFigs firsters in order of their stride length numbers for a $41 exacta and $255 trifecta.  Both of today’s cards come up seriously deficient in maiden opportunities because there are no first timers on the 3-year-old card, and virtually all the races on the 2-year-old card are stakes.  We found one, however, that might be worth a shot, see below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

There is one race on the 2–year-old card that offers potential value from first-time starters:

Prairie Meadows, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs (Dirt)

We hardly ever choose a race with first-timers whose BreezeFigs are under Par, but Wild Student might be able to get up in this event based on his one-under-Par Group 3 profile at KEEAPR where he was a 57k RNA (did not sell).  He showed a 23.57 foot SL at one-eighth on that synthetic surface, which was .37 feet below average, but that’s OK in this group.  Money Zapper showed a much longer 24.06 foot SL on synthetic at OBSAPR, which was .63 feet above average for a quarter mile, but was slow and posted a four-under-Par Group 4 profile and was sold for only 14k.  Wild Student looks like a reasonable play, even though the morning line has him at 8-to-1, and Money Zapper at 5-to-1.  Go figure!

Good luck!