01/07/2012 4:50PM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday January 7th


Happy New Year! Here's hoping you had a relatively relaxing and profitable holiday season, and that you're ready to start picking the undervalued or overlooked maidens that show up with good numbers on our BreezeFigs cards. Now that these horses are 3-year-olds, you might want to pay attention to first-time starters more closely to see if there might be hints as to why they have taken a while to get to the races. Sometimes it's little aches and pains—many times these can be spotted by horses who were scratched (SCR) from a sale after breezing. Sometimes it's pedigree—you can't really expect too many by sires who wanted to go a distance and had no speed to come out too early. Much of the time, however, it's a trainer's mojo working—many of them take their time, especially with pricey horses, and like to bring them out after the others have beaten their brains in, or broken down. Such may be the case today with our Pick, below. Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales. Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don't forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It's now labeled SALE & HIP, the "HIP" referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse's breeze at that sale.

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs "qualified" runners: You can get a good idea of what "qualified" BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There's a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download "2006 Sales Study," or just click right here.

If you'd like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here's our Pick for Saturday:

Fair Grounds, 8th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

Three interesting colts make their debuts here for well-connected outfits that don't like to push horses. We are going to jump all over Castlepost based on his BreezeFigs profile at OBSMAR where he posted a seven-over-Par, Group 1 ticket that featured a 24.84 foot SL—almost a foot longer than average that day for colts. We also like the way he moved. Razzo Succo looked good at FTFFEB where his Group 2, even-Par performance was highlighted by a 25.07 foot SL—also almost a foot longer than average at that sale, which is on the dirt. But we think Castlepost had better action in his trial on synthetic. Scat Chief was a 20k yearling who was RNA'd (not sold) at EASMAY for 38k, then obviously was sold privately. He did OK, but not spectacularly, in his one-under-Par, Group 3 performance there, where his 24.09 foot SL was about a half-foot longer than average for colts that day. He benefits from his previously underrated sire, whose potential we loved and who responded with leading the sire list for Freshmen sires this year, so Scat Chief could get into the picture if all breaks well. This could be a key race—watch the board, and best of luck!