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BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday January 5th, 2012
By Bob Fierro
We’re baaaaaaack! Happy New Year one and all, let’s hope we choose the right races to analyze for your ROI this year. Since the day after Christmas there were 17 BreezeFigs maiden winners across the country, which is pretty good considering that there weren’t a whole heck of a lot of opportunities given the haphazard schedules. There were five at Fair Grounds, including the exacta in both races on the card on December 28th; and three at Aqueduct, including a BreezeFigs trifecta on December 30th. In addition there were three at Santa Anita, two each at Gulfstream and Tampa Bay, and one each at Laurel and Hawthorne (which was also a BreezeFigs exacta). Today we are going bi-coastal, so check out the Pix below, and good luck!
Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales. Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.
Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale.
The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/Video_Links_BreezeFigs_for_2009_Sales.pdf. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.
Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.
If you click here http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/BreezeFigs_&_Stride_Length_Study_Part_I.pdf
you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.
Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here: http://www1.drf.com/breezefigs/breezefigs_010507.doc.
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www1.biodatatrack.com.
Here’s today’s Pix:
Aqueduct, 6th Race, Maiden Special Weight (New York-Breds), 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
Two BreezeFigs graduates come into this race with paradoxical profiles. The expensive one, China Gold, pulled down a bid of 230k at FTFMAR after a two-over-Par, Group 2 profile which featured a 23.46 foot SL, almost half a foot longer than average that day for fillies who breezed an eighth on the dirt. On the other hand, Light Weight brought just 45k at OBSAPR after she put up a six-over-Par, Group 1 profile at the same distance, but on synthetic, where her stride length was 24.41, which was 1.24 feet longer than average for fillies that day. We’re leaning toward her because China Gold has started already without impressing, but that could just be a glitch, Still, it wouldn’t be a mistake to use them both.
Santa Anita Park, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)
Two BreezeFigs graduates come into this race as the choices in the morning line. One of them, Caballo Del Cielo, has started three times in good company (once in a Grade 1 stake) and shows all the promise that his five-over-Par Group 2 profile suggested at BARMAR where his 26.16 foot SL was 1.49 feet longer than average for colts that day at one-eighth. He might go off odds-on. On the other hand, first-timer Bench Press earned a four-over-Par Group 1 profile at OBSMAR where his 25.80 foot SL on synthetic was 2.21 feet longer than average, and that is probably more significant because BARMAR stride-lengths are usually longer than those at other sales. Grand Humor is another first-timer here, and he looks a bit up against it based on his two-under-Par Group 3 profile at OBSAPR, but his stride-length was 24.06, which was .61 feet longer than average for colts that day, so he might be a gimmick chance. We’d key the top two Pix here and though they probably won’t pay that much. Good luck!
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