01/25/2013 12:15PM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday January 26th, 2013


Be thankful for small favors.  One of our Pix (Vita Vittoria) was scratched last week and our repeat Pick from Oaklawn was a total disaster.  But Let Em Shine came through as we thought very big time at Santa Anita (by 10) to pay a shockingly generous $5.60.  Speaking of shockingly generous, there were five BreezeFigs runners in the sixth at Oaklawn on Friday the 18th (when we write our Saturday column).  They finished 1-2-3-4-11 in basic BreezeFigs preference: Cruzette won and paid $16.80, hooking up with True Inspiration for a $340 exacta; Medium of Exchange got up for third to complete a $3001 trifecta, and then Battle Creek Lady finished fourth to complete a $37,650 superfecta.  Nice, very nice indeed.  In addition to a paltry but expected $6 exacta in the Jimmy Wakefield Stakes at Aqueduct (Clawback & Winning Cause), there were a dozen BreezeFigs maiden winners across the country on weather-affected cards last week, with one each at Aqueduct and Charles Town, and two each at Delta Downs, Fair Grounds, Oaklawn, Santa Anita and Tampa Bay.  This week brings us a stand-alone challenge, see below, good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/Video_Links_BreezeFigs_for_2009_Sales.pdf.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/BreezeFigs_&_Stride_Length_Study_Part_I.pdf
you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here: http://www1.drf.com/breezefigs/breezefigs_010507.doc.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com.

Here’s today’s Pick:

Fair Grounds, 5th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½  Furlongs (Turf)

Here we have a lone BreezeFigs horse at 20-to-1 in the morning line making his debut in the middle of the pack against a couple of experienced turf sprinters.  To complicate matters, Midnight Oil has two lines on today’s BreezeFigs card:  He did poorly on the dirt at FTFMAR with a six-under-Par, Group 3 profile where his 23.76 foot SL was about a third of a foot longer than average; obviously something happened in that breeze and he was scratched from the sale before going through the ring (SCR).  He came back on the dirt again at EASMAY with an even-Par, Group 2 profile and a 24.50 foot SL, about the same above-average SL number differential, but went home unsold for 110k (RNA).  Someone must have liked him, or else they wanted a lot more because he was an 90k yearling.  He doesn’t look like a potential winner here—though you never know—but he might be able to get that stride up in time in a gimmick.   Good luck!