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BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday January 19th, 2013
Thank you, January, for messing up the environment. Our key race at Oaklawn last week was cancelled along with the rest of the card, but, voila!, it’s back today exactly the same as we left it, and along with another repeater, it’s one of our Pix, below (Lazy Men’s Pix). Our other Pick last week, Miss Judged, didn’t look like she wanted to be a racehorse right now, which may explain her low claiming tag that we mentioned. Still, there were a dozen BreezeFigs maiden winners during the week, which was a pretty good strike rate considering the paucity of opportunities—three at Aqueduct and Fair Grounds, and one each at Delta, Laurel, Oaklawn, Santa Anita, Tampa and Turfway. Granted, one or two of them were Group 3 or Group 4 with poor profiles, but they were generally in against other very slow horses, which is something you have to keep in mind—BreezeFigs at least gives you something to consider even in bad races. Two of them, both at Aqueduct, paid around sixty bucks. We have three Pix today, see below, good luck!
Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales. Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.
Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale.
The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/Video_Links_BreezeFigs_for_2009_Sales.pdf. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.
Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.
If you click here http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/BreezeFigs_&_Stride_Length_Study_Part_I.pdf
you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.
Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here: http://www1.drf.com/breezefigs/breezefigs_010507.doc.
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com.
Here’s today’s Pix—a repeat of last week’s cancelled race, a quickie second-look, and a new one:
Oaklawn Park, 7th Race, Maiden Special Weight,, 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)
The repeat from last week: This is an unusual Pick for us because each of the three BreezeFigshorses have started once—but far back enough in 2012 and under different conditions thatmake them almost first-timers. Besides, it’s opening weekend at Oaklawn and we need to get that track in the mix. Seal Team Four broke slowly in his debut at 5 ½ furlongs at Aqueduct and has an EASMAY profile which screams two turns: Seven-over-Par Group 1, 24.34 foot SL, about a quarter foot longer than average for colts that day and one-eighth. That was considerably better than his one-under-Par, Group 3 profile at the earlier OBSMAR sale where he was not sold (RNA) for 37k after displaying a slightly-above-average 23.80 SL—maybe he hated the synthetic there. War Shaman did OK in his off-the-turf debut in a roughly run race, and his quarter-mile OBSAPR profile of one-over-Par, Group 2, featured a 24.68 foot SL that was almost half—a-foot longer than average that day. He’s gone the distance but may need the race. Twisted Notion was second in his debut but was trounced by 11 lengths, and that reflected his Group 4, four-under-Par performance at KEEAPR where he did show a solid 24.17 foot SL, about a quarter foot longer than average. All of these are double-digits in the morning line, but we think some creative gimmicking with Seal Team Four and War Shaman might pay off.
Santa Anita Park, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
Quickie second-look: If Let Em Shine goes off at morning line odds of 5-to-2, pounce, because unless he’s just a quittin’ piggy, he ought to hammer. He had the highest BreezeFigs profile of any horse last year at any sale (14 over-Par, 26.55 foot SL) and that’s why we picked him in his debut where, unfortunately, he fried himself like a slice of burning bacon before shriveling up. He should win and spare us egg on the face.
Gulfstream Park, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, One Mile (Turf)
New: She captured our eye at OBSAPR with a quarter-mile, two-over-Par, Group 2 profile that featured a foot-longer-than-average 24.36 foot stride length, and then her consignor captured 400k when she went through the ring. But Vita Vittoria is at 10-to-1 in the morning line and that is just too much to ignore since her sire is good on the weeds and her breeze looked like she would like it. The other BreezeFigs horse, Seasonoftheheart, was three-under-Par at the same sale later in the week at one-eighth, and she had a decent 23.39 foot SL, which was three-quarters of a length longer than average. But she was scratched before going through the ring (SCR), and was one-paced in her debut. Might be worth a gimmick, but Vita Vittoria is the one to key here. Good luck!