01/13/2012 10:27AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday January 14th


Well, that wasn’t exactly our idea of a New Year’s present—last week’s Pick was a total disaster—a race in which none of our three Pix could get out of their own way.  We are still scratching our heads, but the rest of the week went OK  with the winners spread around at Gulfstream, Fair Grounds, Parx, and even Sunland and Beulah.  This week’s card is well spread at a dozen tracks across the country but there’s one race we like because it looks loaded with well-bred beasts and three BreezeFigs runners that may make some noise later on, see below. Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Gulfstream Park, 3rd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

The three morning line favorites here are all first timers, including Grouse, a graduate of KEEAPR who posted a solid three-over-Par, Group 2 profile but more impressively did it with a virtually unheard of 26.09 foot stride length—about two and a half feet longer than average for colts at a furlong that day.  You know he’s no midget because he’s by Street Cry, but that SL has to count for something, though his rail post may be the biggest problem he will have to face.  The other two BreezeFigs horses in here have each started.  The Great Gonzo got a new trainer and new scenery after he stunk out the joint at Aqueduct in November.  Still, he looks like he might be worth a shot based on his four-over-Par Group 1 profile at OBSMAR which featured a 24.01 foot SL, just a bit above average for colts that day.  He was scratched out of the sale (SCR) after breezing, so maybe he had issues, but watch the board and see what you can get.  Sir Flanagan had a race over this track a month ago and was not in the hunt, which could give a hint as to why this very well bred colt only brought 60k at EASMAY.  Still, he managed a solid two-over-Par, Group 1 profile there with a 24.69 foot SL, a foot longer than average for that day.  We think this is a race that’s up in the air and like Grouse as a key in gimmicks, with The Great Gonzo mixed in if you think he might be hot.  Good luck!