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BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday January 12th, 2013
By Bob Fierro
Though both our Pix pooped out at Aqueduct last week, our key horses at Santa Anita came through in a top-bottom trifecta worth a modest $93 when Caballo Del Cielo and Bench Press finished in that order. It was a light week in terms of cards and winners, but BreezeFigs horses made the most of it topped by a $50 first-timer at Santa Anita, giving that track, Gulfstream and Parx two winners each of the eight total winners, with Laurel and Golden Gate posting the other two. Sometimes these winners do not have the best BreezeFigs profiles, but when one looks at the conditions and competition, it’s not that tough to find hidden returns. Today’s card is kind of light in terms of viable first-time starters, so we’re throwing in a bonus Pick as well, see below. Good luck!
Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales. Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.
Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale.
The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/Video_Links_BreezeFigs_for_2009_Sales.pdf. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.
Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.
If you click here http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/BreezeFigs_&_Stride_Length_Study_Part_I.pdf
you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.
Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here: http://www1.drf.com/breezefigs/breezefigs_010507.doc.
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com.
Here’s today’s Pix:
Oaklawn Park, 6th Race, Maiden Special Weight,, 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)
This is an unusual Pick for us because each of the three BreezeFigshorses have started once—but far back enough in 2012 and under different conditions thatmake them almost first-timers. Besides, it’s opening weekend at Oaklawn and we need to get that track in the mix. Seal Team Four broke slowly in his debut at 5 ½ furlongs at Aqueduct and has an EASMAY profile which screams two turns: Seven-over-Par Group 1, 24.34 foot SL, about a quarter foot longer than average for colts that day and one-eighth. That was considerably better than his one-under-Par, Group 3 profile at the earlier OBSMAR sale where he was not sold (RNA) for 37k after displaying a slightly-above-average 23.80 SL—maybe he hated the synthetic there. War Shaman did OK in his off-the-turf debut in a roughly run race, and his quarter-mile OBSAPR profile of one-over-Par, Group 2, featured a 24.68 foot SL that was almost half—a-foot longer than average that day. He’s gone the distance but may need the race. Twisted Notion was second in his debut but was trounced by 11 lengths, and that reflected his Group 4, four-under-Par performance at KEEAPR where he did show a solid 24.17 foot SL, about a quarter foot longer than average. All of these are double-digits in the morning line, but we think some creative gimmicking with Seal Team Four and War Shaman might pay off.
Santa Anita Park, 5th Race, Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)
One BreezeFigs filly in this race, Miss Judged, who was sold for 50k after posting a reasonable two-over-Par, Group 2 profile at OBSAPR, where her SL was 24.17 feet, almost a foot longer than average for fillies at one eighth that day. So why is she making her debut for a 30k price tag? This one requires a little more tea-leaves reading than we might be able to conjure up, but the crowd she’s in with is not much, and she might be able to get a piece of the gimmick. Good luck!
- 1.Posted 12/12/2013 10:03AM
- 2.Posted 12/12/2013 01:31PM
- 3.Posted 12/12/2013 04:12PM
- 4.Posted 12/11/2013 03:00PM
- 5.Posted 12/12/2013 04:46PM