02/08/2013 9:18AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday February 9th, 2013


Last week’s Pick went exactly as planned—the three finished in the order we liked, but unfortunately fifth, sixth and twelfth.  However, all was not lost—the other maiden race on the Gulfstream card was won by Dreaming of Lucy, the lone BreezeFigs horse in the race who paid a solid $12.  In addition, four stakes races on the card were won by BreezeFigs horses—at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, Gulfstream and Turfway.  It was a light week, however, with just Five BreezeFigs winners from very paltry opportunities.  Today’s card is light, and will be lighter because of the East Coast storm, but we found one to consider, see below. Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/Video_Links_BreezeFigs_for_2009_Sales.pdf.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/BreezeFigs_&_Stride_Length_Study_Part_I.pdf
you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here: http://www1.drf.com/breezefigs/breezefigs_010507.doc.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com.

Here’s today’s Pick:

Gulfstream Park, 12th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/6 Miles (Turf)

How about we start with the first sentence from last week’s Pick: Three BreezeFigs horses in here, one of which has a decent shot on his numbers, one of which might improve, one of which looks not that good.  Now, let’s look at the one with decent numbers, first-time starter Fourty Four North, who comes out of OBSMAR with a two-over-Par Group 2 profile that featured a 23.51 foot stride length, just a hair under the average for colts that day at an eighth.  He’s been training on the weeds, is bred for it and has the right connections, and a nice price on the morning line.  Piceance breezed on the same day and distance at OBSMAR with a two-under-Par Group 3 profile that featured a 22.95 foot SL, well under the 23.59 average for the day—and he was scratched before the sale began (SCR).  He looks fair on his first two starts, one of which was on weeds but marred by a bad trip.  Moro Tap was slow at FTFMAR where he had a Group 3, four-under-Par profile—but a 24.72 foot SL, which was 1.33 feet longer than average on the dirt that day.  He’s an absolute head-scratcher—he was not sold (RNA) at 100k, which considering he was a 250k yearling raises many concerns.  His first two starts were here and there, and he is 7-to-2.  Not our cuppa.  Go with the first two in your gimmicks.  Good luck!