02/01/2013 10:44AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday February 2nd, 2013


Our hesitancy to fully tout our Pick last week (Midnight Oil) turned out to be prescient as she got bollixed up at the start and had no time to settle—watch her next time stretching out.  If you’d stuck with the Fair Grounds card that day, you might have pulled out a profit in the 11th race with a BreezeFigs exacta of Skinny and High Twist, which paid a paltry $10.60, but at least it paid.  Another good week for BreezeFigs maidens across the country with 14 winners: two each at Aqueduct, Charles Town and Gulfstream (one of those a $197 exacta) and Turfway, and singles at Fair Grounds, Golden Gate, Oaklawn, Houston, Parx and Laurel.  In addition, both Graded stakes for three-year-olds went at Gulfstream went to BreezeFigs horses, Kauai Katie and Itsmyluckyday.  Today’s card has a lot of second and third time starters, some stakes runners, and one particularly intriguing first-time starter, see below. Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/Video_Links_BreezeFigs_for_2009_Sales.pdf.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/BreezeFigs_&_Stride_Length_Study_Part_I.pdf
you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here: http://www1.drf.com/breezefigs/breezefigs_010507.doc.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com.

Here’s today’s Pick:

Gulfstream Park, 11th Race, Maiden Special Weight, One Mile (Turf)

Three BreezeFigs horses in here, one of which has a decent shot on his numbers, one of which might improve, one of which looks not that good.  Posse Attack did OK at EASMAY where his Group 2, five-over-Par profile was helped considerably by a 25.60 foot stride-length, which was 1.83 feet longer than average for colts that day at an eighth.  He’s in clever hands and could be a good bet at 10-to-1.  Conversationalist has had a tune-up on the weeds which reflected his modest OBSMAR Group 3 profile—three-under-Par, 23.11 foot SL (half-foot below average), after which he was scratched from the sale.  But his sire’s offspring love the weeds, so watch the board.  Big Henry is by a serious turf horse and sire, but his OBSAPR profile on synthetic was not promising —Group 4, nine-under-Par, 22.71 foot SL, about three-quarters of a foot below average.  Posse Attack might be a good key here, but watch the board.  Good luck!