02/17/2012 10:28AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday February 18th


We're still scratching our heads over our Pick last week where, as we suspected because of the morning line, Nonios, the weaker BreezeFigs half of an uncoupled entry came home on top, with his stablemate Germany Bay, completing a modest $1 exacta of $7.40.  That score completed an eye-popping day that saw six of the 11 maiden races on that card falling to BreezeFigs horses (although one of them, My Schatzie, a $19.80 number at Gulfstream was so far off the chart that we would not have considered her).  The other winners were all logical plays: Street Life ($10) at Aqueduct (where both stakes races were also won by BreezeFigs horses); Majestic Number ($7.40) at Gulfstream; Awesome Bankroll ($6.40) at Sam Houston; and Bodemeister ($6.80) at Santa Anita.  The same kind of situation faces us this week—several really good races on paper, but one where there are a couple of first time starters that could make for an interesting play, see below. Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.
Also, don't forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It's now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse's breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There's a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you'd like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here's our Pick for Saturday:

Laurel Park, 7th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)

Three BreezeFigs fillies line up here, two for the first time, and the one we like best, Despinas Desire, is at 6-to-1 in the morning line.  That's reflective of her decent five-over-Par Group 1 profile at EASMAY where she showed a 23.40 foot stride length, only a bit higher than average for that day and brought a final bid of 25k.  The other first timer, Classy Citizen, also comes out of the same sale with a Group 2, one-over-Par profile that showed a half-foot below average SL of 22.65 feet; she went for 2,200 bucks and is 20-to-1 in the morning line, over to you.  Great Curves is 15-to-1 on the line and that's a pretty good reflection of her first out at Charles Town, as well as an even-Par, Group 2 profile at OBSAPR where she only brought two grand on a final bid after showing a 21.20 foot SL, about a foot-and-a-half below average that day.   Best play here is to use Despinas Desire as your key, and possibly consider Great Curves as a gimmick. Good luck!