02/15/2013 10:40AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday February 16th, 2013


It looked like the rodeo was in town after the gates were sprung for our Pick last week—all three BreezeFigs horses had problems at one time or another during the race and were given too much to overcome.  It was a very light week overall for maiden races throughout the country, but seven BreezeFigs horses did break their maidens at seven different tracks.  They included Distinctly Mine’s $83.40 number in its second start at Oaklawn; and first-time starter No Contingency dropping a $50.20 bouquet of roses on the patrons on Valentine’s Day at Santa Anita.  Other winners came at Fair Grounds, Gulfstream, Parx, Sam Houston and Tampa.  Today’s card if very light in acceptable first time starters, so we’ve made a slight adjustment in our modus operandus, see below. Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember that like the previous year, the 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/Video_Links_BreezeFigs_for_2009_Sales.pdf.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/BreezeFigs_&_Stride_Length_Study_Part_I.pdf
you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here: http://www1.drf.com/breezefigs/breezefigs_010507.doc.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com.

Here’s today’s Pick:

Golden Gate Fields, 4th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Synthetic)

We really don’t like any of the first time starters on today’s overall BreezeFigs card, and we are not extremely impressed with too many others making their second starts.  However, Hedy has a shot in here based on the fact that she was OK in her quarter mile breeze at OBSMAR where she earned a three-over-Par Group 1 profile with a 23.49 foot stride length, which was about a third of a foot longer than average for fillies that day.  She had real trouble in her debut on the turf at Hollywood in July which turned out to be a key race, so shipping up the road for this event for her second start six months later might prove beneficial at a fair price (5-to-1 morning line)—or she could have come out of her debut somewhat the worse for wear. Watch the board.  There you go. Good luck!