02/10/2012 10:47AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday February 11th


The stronger half of our Pick last week (or, at least we thought so) scratched out and the other one, Kitty Kat Karly, did not have the luck we hoped for at the start but looks promising for her next start.  It was a week of big balloons on the tote board for BreezeFigs horses all over the place with payoffs of $42.60, $27.80, $88.60, $137.40, and $28.40, among others, and also a chump change $2.80.  However, few of those horses caught our eyes as handicapping possibilities off their numbers, which means February, with all its Aquarian implications, has truly arrived.  We are heading west again for today's Pick, to a place we rarely go but which has a very decent handicapping opportunity, see below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don't forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It's now labeled SALE & HIP, the "HIP" referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse's breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs "qualified" runners: You can get a good idea of what "qualified" BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There's a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download "2006 Sales Study," or just click right here.

If you'd like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here's our Pick for Saturday:

Golden Gate Fields, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Synthetic)

Jerry Hollendorfer sends out two separate entries here, both BreezeFigs horses, both making their debuts, and if they both start have been tabbed the first and second choices here.  What's weird from our perspective is that Germany Bay, the better on one paper, based on his BreezeFigs profile, is 3-to-1 while the one who has a virtually negative BreezeFigs profile, Nonios, is favored at 9-to-5.  Germany Bay posted a reasonable three-over-Par Group 1 profile at OBSMAR at a quarter mile, where his 24.35 SL was almost two thirds of a foot longer than average; for that he brought 70k as a final bid.  Nonios went an eighth a month later on the same surface at OBSAPR where he posted a four-under-Par Group 3 profile that featured a 22.74 foot SL, a third of a foot below average for that day—and he brought 73k.  We are not going to argue with whomever set the odds, but we kind of wonder where this is going to wind up, and since only six were entered, both might be likely to go.  We lean toward Germany Bay, but with only six in the line-up, the chances of a BreezeFigs exacta look fairly reasonable.  Good luck!