12/07/2012 10:08AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, December 8th, 2012


A couple of more jumps might have made all the difference for our key Pick last week, but first-timer Black Witch’s long stride length could not make up for her slow start and she had to settle for runner-up, while our other Pix in that race did not impress.  However, there were 14 BreezeFigs maiden winners during the week, including one that was a Group 4 whom we don’t mind trumpeting if only for his name: Smokinindaboysroom, one of two winners during the week at Turfway.  Of the other 12, four topped BreezeFigs exactas including two at Fair Grounds ($17.80 and $79,60, among four winners overall); and one each at Aqueduct ($20.20) and Penn National ($38.80).  The other winners were at Hawthorne (both races on one card), Woodbine, Laurel and Remington—plus a second-time starter, Cor Cor, who won the opening stake at Tampa Bay.  Today we shift to a track which has had a surprisingly good record for BreezeFigs winners this year, Fair Grounds, see below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/Video_Links_BreezeFigs_for_2009_Sales.pdf.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here http://www.drf.com/BreezeFigs/BreezeFigs_&_Stride_Length_Study_Part_I.pdf
you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here: http://www.drf.com/breezefigs/breezefigs_010507.doc.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com.

Here’s today’s Pick:

Fair Grounds, 6th Race, Maiden Special Weight (Louisiana-Breds), 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

Three of these come out of OBSAPR with good profiles at an eighth of a mile, two of which have already started and shown some form.  Best BreezeFig was recorded by Gimme Yo Number, whose five-over-Par Group 1 showing featured a 24.14 foot SL, just about a foot longer than average for fillies that day.  She’s made a start at Evangeline and one at Fair Grounds but has not looked sharp so far.  Shanghai Princess breezed on another day and racked up a four-over-Par Group 2 profile with a 23.67 foot SL, which was also about a foot longer than average for fillies that day.  She had a wide trip first time out and looks pretty good here as a gimmick play.  The one we like, however, is Mischievous Mama, who’s on the rail for her debut (not the best slot) and whose Group 2, one-over-Par profile was achieved on the same day as that of Gimme Yo Number.  However, she may have an advantage in this long stretch if she can settle because her stride length was 25.04, about a foot longer than the other two.  If she’s ready, she’s could be a key at the number, or a good gimmick play.  Good luck!