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BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, December 22, 2012
By Bob Fierro
First of all, Merry Merry and Happy Happy to one and all. This column will not appear next week as we will be away, so enjoy yourselves and we’ll see you in 2013.
Despite our top Pick last week (Let Em Shine) frying himself on the front end, the race actually may have revealed some nice BreezeFigs plays for the future—that horse in sprints and Brokered and Master Affair around two turns. The week itself saw another 18 BreezeFigs horses break their maidens, including a stone-cold BreezeFigs superfecta on Thursday at Gulfstream ($332 for $1). There was a $14.80 BreezeFigs exacta at Gulfstream to kick off the week on Friday the 14th, as well as another maiden winner at that track. Aqueduct had five winners including both maiden races on the Saturday and Sunday cards. Fair Grounds had two winners including an $83 trifecta on Friday, while Hollywood had two winners including a $19.20 (for $1) exacta on Sunday. There were two winners at Laurel, and one each at Delta Downs, Parx, Tampa Bay and Woodbine. This week’s card is very light but there is opportunity to win more Christmas shopping money, see below. Good luck!
Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales. Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.
Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale.
The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/Video_Links_BreezeFigs_for_2009_Sales.pdf. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.
Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.
If you click here http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/BreezeFigs_&_Stride_Length_Study_Part_I.pdf
you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.
Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here: http:www1.//drf.com/breezefigs/breezefigs_010507.doc.
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www1.biodatatrack.com.
Here’s today’s Pick:
Fair Grounds, 11th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
Four of the seven entries in this race are BreezeFigs graduates, including the one likely to be closest to the lead at the end—Stourbridge Lion. This first-timer has strong connections and was hammered down for 560k at KEEAPR following a decent one-over-Par Group 2 performance that featured a 20.3 second quarter, and 24.35 foot SL, just above average for colts at that distance. Valdina Saint and Ground Transport breezed an eighth of a mile at the same sale and both posted Group 4 profiles. The former was a one-under-Par with a 23.94 foot SL, just about average for colts that day, while the latter was three-under-Par whose 23.44 foot SL was almost a half-foot below average—and he was not sold (RNA) at 75k. Strong Humor comes out of OBSAPR with a six-under-Par Group 3 profile and a SL of 21.57—and that was 1.74 feet below average for that day, and he never made it to the ring (SCR)—maybe he had a physical issue. This is an interesting bunch, but it’s clear that if he can walk, Stourbridge Lion should be a solid play given his 9-to-2 morning line. Good luck!
You guy don't attract much comment but I think your data is first rank. Keep up the good work and happy holidays. STUCKINARIZONA
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