12/16/2011 12:54PM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday December 17th


Be thankful for small favors as they say.  Our top Pick last week, Twylight Cocktails, overdid it  early, leaving the race set up for our second choice, Highland Sara ($8.20) and (surprising to us) the other BreezeFigs horse, Black and White, who completed a reasonably generous $30.80 exacta.   Hey, we’ll take it.  There were seven other maiden winners on the various BreezeFigs cards during the week, all of them very viable plays given the levels of competition.  We’re heading into a couple of weeks where a lot of stables might pop a few decent ones over at first asking, so keep your eyes peeled for some opportunities as always.  Meanwhile, today’s card is very playable, and one race in particular looks rather impossible, so we’ll use it for our Pick, below. Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Hollywood Park, 7th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Synthetic)

Far be it for us to wager against a first time starter named Bobby Flay, but he never went through a 2-year-old sale, so we have to come up with alternatives, and there’s at least one, maybe two, BreezeFigs horses here that can do the deed.  First-timer Koast earned a respectable three-over-Par, Group 2 profile at OBSMAR where his 24.72 foot SL was .81 foot longer than average for colts that day, and he did fetch 200k.  He gets the nod over Cat’s Enough, who was a bit green in his first start but whose seven-over-Par, Group 1 profile at OBSAPR featured a nearly foot longer than average 23.92 foot SL at one-eighth of a mile, so he has to be taken seriously. Another first timer, Rintoo, also comes out of OBSAPR with a  two-under-Par, Group 3 profile at a quarter mile, but his 24.31was more than half-foot longer than average for that day, and he could sneak into the picture with a little luck.  In any case, this one’s a mind scrambler on paper, and is likely to be a key race. Good luck!