12/14/2012 11:18AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, December 15, 2012


After breaking behind the field and then forced to take up to avoid clipping heels, Mischievous Mama managed to finish third last week to salvage our gimmick recommendation—but tab her back for the next time at seven or eight furlongs and she should be ready.  On the other hand, it was another good week overall for BreezeFigs maidens—16 of them won, two of them topping BreezeFigs exactas.  There were five winners at Hollywood, four at Aqueduct (including an $11 exacta), three at Gulfstream (with a $128 exacta), and one each at Fair Grounds, Golden Gate, Parx and Remington.  In addition there were three stakes winners on the cards topped by a $125 BreezeFigs exacta at Fair Grounds.  Today we have a serious race to examine on another very decent and playable card, see below. Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/Video_Links_BreezeFigs_for_2009_Sales.pdf.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/BreezeFigs_&_Stride_Length_Study_Part_I.pdf
you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here: http://www1.drf.com/breezefigs/breezefigs_010507.doc.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com.

Here’s today’s Pick:

Hollywood Park, 8th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Synthetic)

There are six BreezeFigs entries here and only one, Syndicated, has started—and this former Pick was compromised by a bad start in his debut and is on the AE list; if he breaks in, consider him in the gimmicks because like our top two choices, he was a Group 1 at BARMAR with a long stride length.  The other five are tough to separate, but our inspection of their breeze styles and numbers show exacta potential for Let Em Shine and Brokered.  The former was a 14-over-Par (yes, that’s 14) Group 1number on the dirt at BARMAR where his speed and 26.55 foot SL (1.88 feet above average) ruled the day.  However, Brokered comes out of the same sale with a seven-over-Par Group 1 profile and a 26.13 foot SL, which was 1.46 feet above average.  We give Let Em Shine a little edge her on pedigree-for-the-job: This is a sprint and Brokered might need a little more distance but a fast pace will help him.  Hard Play comes out of KEEAPR with a solid two-over-Par Group 2 profile that featured a 24.17 foot SL on synthetic, which was .28 feet above average for the day.  On Ocala’s synthetic, Kochees scored a solid Group 2, two-over-Par profile at OBSMAR with a 24.38 foot SL, which was .79 feet longer than average.  A month later, Major Affair put on a Group 2, five-over-Par performance at OBSAPR which featured a 24.99 foot SL, which was 1.14 feet longer than average at a quarter mile.  This could be a very key maiden.  Watch the board, play it carefully, but you might want to key on the two Group 1 colts here. Good luck!