12/09/2011 10:57AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday December 10th


Pretty decent week which was really highlighted by our Pick of last week, Jonrah, who got off slowly and looked hopelessly out of it but who used his 24 foot long stride to get up in the last stride and pay $14.80.  He was one of 17 BreezeFigs maiden winners across the country last week, and you could have made a playable case for 16 of them, including eight of the nine that won on Thursday.  Yes, that’s right, of the 13 maiden races across the country that were on Thursday’s BreezeFigs card, nine of those races went to playable horses off their BreezeFigs numbers.  They included three of the four maiden races at Aqueduct, both maiden races at Gulfstream, and one each at Delta Downs and Fair Grounds.  The other was an eight-under-Par filly who won at Hawthorne, but she was in for 15k, and had run twice before so she was logical on the form as her $7.20 payoff showed.  In addition, three BreezeFigs-qualified horses won stakes across the country, so it was a heck of a week.  Here’s hoping we can keep up the momentum, see below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Gulfstream Park, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)

Three BreezeFigs fillies line up here, two of which have started.  But we like the first-timer here, Twylight Cocktails, who comes out of EASMAY with a five-over-Par Group 1 profile that featured a just about average 23.01 foot stride length, which means she can scamper, an important factor in these short events.  She’s by the right sire and from a clever outfit, so she is worth looking at closely as a key.  Highland Sara has made two starts, both of them OK, but she’s with another trainer now.  She is the morning line favorite, an overall decent reflection of her one-over-Par Group 2 profile at OBSAPR where her 22.66 foot stride length was a quarter foot below average.  She was scratched from the sale after breezing, though, as was Black and White who quit after chasing in her first start, perhaps reflecting that she needed the race.  More likely it was  because of her five-under-Par, Group 4 profile at OBSMAR where her 22.60 foot SL was .60 of a foot shorter than average. These ain’t no world beaters, but Twylight Cocktals and Highland Sara should both be there at the end.  Good luck!