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BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday December 1, 2012
By Bob Fierro
So, we picked the wrong race. Last week we focused on what we thought would be easy pickings, so to speak, at Fair Grounds, and got our brains fried when our choice ran not a whit. However, of the sixteen races on that BreezeFigs card for maidens, six resulted in BreezeFigs winners and one of those was a BreezeFigs exacta ($34 at Churchill). In fact, of the14 BreezeFigs maiden winners for the entire week (Friday the 23rd through Thursday the 29th), five headed BreezeFigs exactas and one of those was also a BreezeFigs trifecta. The exactas were on Friday at Aqueduct ($203) and Churchill ($34, with the tri coming there at $108); on Saturday at Churchill ($48), and on Sunday at Aqueduct ($52) and Zia Park ($34). The remaining winners came at Aqueduct , Beulah, Churchill (2), Calder (3), Hawthorne and Parx. Today we’re going to focus on what might be a key maiden race, see below. Good luck!
Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales. Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.
Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale.
The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/Video_Links_BreezeFigs_for_2009_Sales.pdf. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.
Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.
If you click here http://www1.drf.com/BreezeFigs/BreezeFigs_&_Stride_Length_Study_Part_I.pdf
you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.
Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here: http://www1.drf.com/breezefigs/breezefigs_010507.doc.
If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com.
Here’s today’s Pick:
BetFair Hollywood Park, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Synthetic)
Eight fillies line up here, four of them BreezeFigs runners, all of them first-time starters, three of them big-time Group 1 performers at separate sales. Black Witch was very impressive in her KEEAPR breeze at a quarter mile on synthetic, racking up an eight-over-Par profile with a 25.55 foot SL, over two feet longer than average that day for fillies at a quarter—and she brought $400k. Epistemology tooled to a nine-over-Par profile on the dirt at BARMAR where her 25.70 foot SL on the dirt was 1.35 feet longer than average for fillies at an eighth—and she garnered $310k. Unseen Visitor nailed an eight-over-Par profile on dirt at EASMAY where her 24.35 foot SL was 1.23 feet longer than average for fillies that day at one-eighth—she brought $80k. On the other hand, Sun Kiss threw in a Group 3, four-under-Par profile at OBSMAR on synthetic where her 22.68 foot SL was .88 foot shorter than average for fillies at one-eighth that day, and she was sold for $60k. We looked at the Group 1 fillies pretty closely at these sales and would think Black Witch is the key here, and you should hook her up with the other two in the gimmicks. Good luck!
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