08/03/2012 10:03AM

BreezeFigs-Quick Pix Saturday August 4th, 2012


Our Pick last week, Rollin Thunder, went off at high odds but ran into a monster but managed to pick up second and complete a  $350 trifecta with our second Pick, Mile High City, so it wasn’t a total loss.  The results for the entire week were super: 10 maiden 2-year-old winners including a sweep of both races at Calder on July 29th and at Saratoga the next day (total of three for the week), as well as two scores at Del Mar, and one each at Assiniboia, Monmouth, and Prairie Meadows.  The 3-year-olds did OK as well with seven maiden winners: two at Calder, and one each at Louisiana Downs, Santa Rosa, Northlands, Charles Town and Del Mar.  We’re at Saratoga now and have a tight deadline, so we can only tell you that today’s 2-year-old card is loaded, but we are going to focus on one race where you could see a very special horse, see below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the twoBreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on thewww.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Tons of maiden races today, here’s one which you should really watch and play:

Saratoga, 5th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

Four BreezeFigs horses here, two of which might be special.  Balance the Books earned a Group 1, nine-over-Par profile at KEEAPR with a 24.67 foot SL, about three-quarters of a length longer than average that day.  But the intriguing one is Winning Cause.  He was a 170k RNA (not sold) number at OBSMAR where he had a four-over-Par, Group 1 profile with a 23.14 foot SL on synthetic, three-quarters of a foot shorter than average. They wheeled him back on the dirt at EASMAY where he was sold for 200k after a two-over-Par Group 1 performance with a 23.73 foot SL, about a third of a foot shorter than average, on the dirt.  But this horse is all turf in our opinion and should have an explosive kick and his SL will be fine on the weeds. Denn Piper comes out of OBSAPR with a solid four-over-Par, Group 2 effort that featured a 23.47 foot SL, just above average; and Equus Prime wassfair at KEEAPR with a two-under-Par Group 3 profile and a 24.15 foot SL, about a quarter foot above average.  But this race boils down to Winning Cause in our opinion:  Key him with Balance the Books and maybe throw in the other two in gimmicks, and you could score out.  Good luck!