08/26/2011 9:29AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday August 27th


Anytime a horse named Hannibal Lecter gives Tom Durkin such a straight line with his name (“Hannibal Lecter had this field for lunch,”), you at least have to chalk some things up to karma.  The horse in question rolled to an easy maiden win at Saratoga during the week in his debut and paid $7.90, and we thought he was less than a lock based on his BreezeFigs profile at OBSMAR where he was four-under-Par with a stride length that was quite a bit shorter than average.  However, he was scratched (SCR) from the sale after that breeze so we might infer something went wrong with him during the breeze which was never disclosed, and then he was given time to come back and show his worth.  This happens from time-to-time, but it’s more of a rarity than a natural occurrence, the most prominent of which might have been Ice Box in the past few years.  He hit the rail during his breeze at FTFFEB and wound up with a poor profile, but went on to do well (though not as well as some think) on the racetrack.  We bring this up for two reasons: 1) There was a parade of BreezeFigs winners and gimmicks again last week, but some of them involved horses that were below our standards as solid betting interests; 2) Our Pick today falls into that category (see below).  First, the results from last week: 12 BreezeFigs winners which included six BreezeFigs gimmicks: Calder (two, one with an exacta), Del Mar (two with an exacta and triple in the same race), Delaware (two, one with an exacta), Saratoga (two, ine with an exacta), Monmouth (an exacta), and solos at Arlington, Woodbine and Charles Town.  Some of these were Group 3 and Group 4 horses, but in most cases they were still playable given the level of competition at the track where they raced.  However, even we have to admit that aside from wondering how in heaven his name got through the Jockey Club, Hannibal Lecter was not on our plate.  Ouch!  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Saratoga Race Course, 2nd Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

There are more than 80 horses on the BreezeFigs card today, most of them in the annual all-2-year-old card at Calder, where the vast majority have already started—but you can use BreezeFigs to sort some of these races out because they are extremely contentious.  We have chosen to highlight what we might call “The RNA Derby,” this race at Saratoga with four BreezeFigs horses, only one of which went through the ring as a sale.  Indeed, that one was also the only one of the three who posted a BreezeFig that was at least over Par, but Golden Megillah (love that name) just made it by one point at FTFFEB where his Group 2 profile also featured a 23.12 foot SL, a bit more than a foot shorter than average that day, which may have contributed to his modest 50k price.  Not so modest were the RNA prices of two others in here from that sale who breezed the same distance that day with much better stride lengths but lower BreezeFigs profiles and went back to their barns unsold.  Awaited was a Group 3, one-under-Par beast with a 25.05 foot SL, almost a foot longer than average; this 150k yearling was bought back for 450k.  Casual Trick, a 450k yearling purchase, went back to his owner unsold at 775k (yes, 775 k) after posting a Group 3, two-under-Par profile with a 24.25 foot SL, just about average for the day.  Later on at KEEAPR, Fire On Ice posted a Group 3, two-under-Par profile with a 25.91 foot SL, which was 1.76 feet longer than average, but this is a huge horse and one would expect such a SL; he went home for 170k after costing 160k as a yearling.  Now, all of these are in against a Pletcher-Repole first-time yearling purchase duo that is listed as 8-to-5 in the morning line.  That means that our BreezeFigs play here is strictly under as a gimmick, and we’d watch the board to see which one you might latch on to.  Then sit back and thank the weather gods that Irene will probably not hit Saratoga, at least until the Travers is over.  Good luck!