08/24/2012 11:13AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday August 25th, 2012


Once again we gave out the wrong horses for our Pick last week as Bandits Heart got fried in a speed duel in the third at the Spa and Bad Hombre was basically left at the start in the following race (tab him back).  But there were some other opportunities on that card that you could have had easily, starting with Tree of Life at Del Mar.  This BARMAR Group 1 colt exploded past the field in the final stages, taking advantage of his 25.29 foot SL to sweep past four other BreezeFigs horses and pay $47.  He was one of 10 juvenile maiden BreezeFigs winners last week, and they set the stage for one of the most crowded, and quality, cards ever on a Saturday since we started this service in 2005.  There are 86 2-year-old BreezeFigs horses running on Saturday, led by 40 of them at Calder’s annual baby bonanza, so we will cram three of them into your brain this week, but not as extensively as we usually do.  Remember, the 3-year-old cards end Labor Day, so look them over, too. To get more information, get the card! Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

There are three hot maiden 2-y-o races for fillies among the many on today’s card:

Calder, 4th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

There are seven BreezeFigs fillies in this one, all from OBSAPR, only four of which are worth looking at closely starting with Dafreakinheat (yes, that’s her name).  This one was a Group 1, 10-over-Par with a 24.57 foot SL, almost two feet longer than average for fillies that day at one eighth.  On a different day, Sharapova Slams chalked up an even-Par Group 2 profile at the same distance with a 24.62 foot SL, about a foot-and-a-half longer than average.  Cupids Messenger and I Know It All went a quarter at the same sale and had competitive profiles, while Bahia de Oro, Cotton Blend and Glacken Road were unimpressive.  The top two look tough to beat.

Del Mar, 6th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Synthetic)

Three more from OBSAPR in this one, all of which qualify as potential winners, but we’re going to go with Foxy Boss, who was a Group 2, five-over-Par lass at BARMAR with a 25.17 foot SL that was .82 of a foot longer than average that day.  The two Group 1 fillies from OBSAPR—Lady Katfish and Pat’s Back—had very good overall profiles, but their stride lengths, though above average at one-eighth (22.75 and 23.49 respectively) were considerably shorter than that of Rosies Ready the Group 2 filly from that sale who went a quarter mile with a 24.42 SL.  She might be the one to hook up with Foxy Boss in gimmicks.

Woodbine, 4th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (Synthetic)

Six more fillies for you, one of which breezed in two sales and did well in both:  Applelcious, who was scratched (SCR) from the sale after racking up a Group 2 profile at OBSMAR with a 24+ foot SL, then came back and was sold for $120k at EASMAY with virtually the same SL and overall profile.  However, we’re going to go with Alert in Class here, whose six-over-Par Group 1 profile at EASMAY we would normally discount because it was at three furlongs and we don’t like many of these—but this one had a 24+ foot SL as well, and that’s tough to do at that distance.  Its the Rush, Tiny Bear and Two to Tango all threw in good profiles at OBSAPR as did Actiononthegreen at KEEAPR, but we’ll stick with the top two as keys and let you figure out the rest.  Good luck!