08/19/2011 10:30AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday August 20th


Both of our Saratoga Pix last week turned out to be gimmick plays, with our key horse in each race finishing second.  Jaw Crusher completed a $12.60 exacta in the second with the favorite, and Right to Vote completing a  $409 exacta with our second choice Love to Run slipping up to fill in a $2,630 trifecta.  So you can’t win them all, but during the week 17 BreezeFigs horses broke their maidens across the country, of which 14 were Group 1 or Group 2.  The other three were playable given the circumstances, but we won’t go overboard with our hubris.  There were also two stakes winners, including an exacta in the Saratoga Special with Union Rags and Stat which paid a generous $24.20.  The maiden winners came at Arlington, Calder (3), Charles Town (2), Del Mar (2), Evangeline, Monmouth, Prairie Downs, Saratoga and Woodbine, with the average payoff at $14.85.  There were also four BreezeFigs exactas in those maiden races which paid $21.60 (Prairie Meadows) $148.30 (Woodbine), $48.80 (Monmouth), and $699.40 at Calder.  Let’s see what Saturday has in store for us—it’s a loaded card with plenty of opportunities, so we’ll look at two of them, below.  Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 sales sheets have a major change in the NOTES section: The OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and that forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales.  Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale.  This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale. 

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here.  Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there.  Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here you will get a document which details our latest study.  The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this:  When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group.  There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box.  So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races.  Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here.

Here’s our Pick for Saturday:

Saratoga Race Course, 6th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

This is a stretch-out for colts that need some time to get into gear which should give one of our previous Pix, Grandpa Len, time to get serious if he runs back after just nine days.  He had trouble at the start of his debut and didn’t get into his OBSMAR Group 2, five-over-Par profile which featured a foot-longer-than-average stride length of 24.88 feet until late.  If he doesn’t run back, or if you think he’s good for a bounce, you might want to look at both News Pending and Flashy Surprise as alternatives, especially in the gimmicks.  News Pending was a 185k RNA at FTFFEB where he posted an even-Par, Group 2 profile with a 23.53 foot SL, more than half-foot below average for colts.  He came back on the dirt again at EASMAY where he was sold for 250k off a Group 3, one-under-Par performed with a virtually identical 23.60 foot SL, just a tad below average.  At least he’s consistent.  Flashy Sunrise is by our favorite Freshman sire, and posted a reasonable one-under-Par, Group 3 profile on synthetic at OBSMAR, where his SL at a quarter mile was 24.18 feet, about half a foot longer than average.  Interesting race here, plunge with caution.

Del Mar Race Track, 6th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 5 ½ Furlongs (Synthetic)

This one also features an RNA from FTFFEB, Blacky the Bull, who went home for 190k after a Group 3, one-under-Par performance at 1/8 of a mile which featured a 25.15 foot SL, more than a foot longer than average.  They should have taken the money because when they wheeled him back at EASMAY he posted a four-under-Par Group 3 profile with a 24.06 foot SL, just a little longer for a quarter mile average for colts that day, and was sold for 55k.   We’d be much more inclined to bet on Mr. Newton, all over the place, in this one.  He posted a five-over-Par, Group 1 number at BARMAR where his 24.62 foot SL was a bit under average that day, but he did it smoothly and very efficiently.  Pounce!  Good luck!