08/17/2012 11:43AM

BreezeFigs Quick-Pix Saturday August 18th, 2012


Let’s not talk about last week’s Pick—rather, let’s say we picked the wrong race, obviously. That’s because there were six winners on the BreezeFigs card that were just as likeable, including two at Saratoga plus a trifecta at Monmouth and stand-alones at Delaware, Suffolk and Woodbine. Those were supplemented later in the week by another 11 maiden winners on the 2-year-old card, two at Saratoga and Parx, and one each at Arlington, Calder, Charles Town (exacta), Del Mar (trifecta), Ellis Park, Monmouth and Presque Isle. In addition, both Graded stakes at Saratoga on Sunday were hammered by impressive BreezeFigs horses. This week we’re going to stick with Saratoga for two Pix, one for each age group, but there are serious races all over the place on the cards—pay attention and you could score out. see below. Good luck!

Before we get to the business of Pix, remember the 2011 and now 2012 sales sheets have major changes in the NOTES section: For 2011, the OBSFEB sale was eliminated and combined with OBSMAR, and for 2012, the FTFFEB sale was moved to March, so it is now known as FTFMAR. Both of these changes forced a re-evaluation of the CLASS EDGE for the various sales. Pay attention because there has been an upgrade for OBSMAR and a consolidation of categories.

Also, don’t forget the change we made for the 2010 sales sheets (which is also in the 2011 and 2012 sheets), in the SALE column: It’s now labeled SALE & HIP, the “HIP” referring to the catalogue number for that horse in that sale. This reference will enable you to go to the website of the sales company involved and easily find the short video of the horse’s breeze at that sale.

The web links for each sale are listed in the NOTES section of the new BreezeFigs Report and you will find all the information as to why we have done this and how you can benefit from this addition to the service by downloading the document which explains it all here: http://www.drf.com/BreezeFigs/Video_Links_BreezeFigs_for_2009_Sales.pdf. Remember, no other handicapping service can give you the advantages you need from 2-year-old sales, So sign up for DRF-Plus on the front page of www.drf.com and get the BreezeFigs cards.

Our rules still hold about BreezeFigs “qualified” runners: You can get a good idea of what “qualified” BreezeFigs horses are by clicking on BreezeFigs Information underneath the two BreezeFigs links in the DRF-PLUS box in the right hand column on the www.drf.com home page and downloading files there. Remember, keep stride length (SL) in mind when handicapping from the BreezeFigs sheet and take advantage of all the tips that we provide on those sheets as well.

If you click here http://www.drf.com/BreezeFigs/BreezeFigs_&_Stride_Length_Study_Part_I.pdf you will get a document which details our latest study. The conclusion for those who like to know the bottom line fast is this: When it comes to 2-year-old racing only, horses that earned Group 1 or Group 2 BreezeFigs and had longer-than-average stride lengths at the five major 2-year-old sales of 2006-07-08-09 won more races, won earlier, and earned more black-type, than horses with shorter-than-average stride lengths, regardless of BreezeFigs Group. There’s a lot more to it than that, and a review of this document, which is the first in a series, will strengthen your hand at the windows, or, if you are a buyer, at the sales or claim box. So, download it and absorb.

Also, refer to a study we did which shows that using BreezeFigs for 3-year-old maiden races in just as viable as using them for 2-year-old maiden races. Go to the DRF PLUS box on the www.drf.com home page, click on BreezeFigs™ Information, and then download “2006 Sales Study,” or just click right here: http://drf.com/breezefigs/breezefigs_010507.doc.

If you’d like to learn a little more about how we come up with BreezeFigs, take a look at our new website by clicking here: www.biodatatrack.com.

There are two interesting maiden races at Saratoga, one for each age group:

Saratoga, 3rd Race, Maiden Claiming (New York-Breds), 5 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)

Bottom of the barrel here, but if he can walk and overcome the rail, Bandits Heart could steal this one. He was a four-over-Par Group 1 performer at EASMAY last year where his 24.45 foot SL was .70 feet longer than average that day. Obviously, he has some issues—but so do all the rest in this bunch, so he might be worth a key or straight play.

Saratoga, 4th Race, Maiden Special Weight, 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

Bad Hombre motored to a four-over-Par Group 1 profile at OBSMAR with a 24.95 foot SL, more than 1.3 feet longer than average that day, so he already has an advantage over Holden On, who was Group 1, two-over-Par at the same distance and the same sale but on a different day with a 23.38 foot SL that was a quarter foot shorter than average. Head-to-head with Bad Hombre, he showed that he might need more stride length based on his first start. Demographic Trend did OK at EASMAY but his record in two starts indicates his one-under-Par, Group 3 profile that day was fairly accurate, even with a 24.48 foot SL on a dirt track that sometimes plays long on the strides. Bred to Boss was not impressive at OBSMAR and is not likely to impress here backed on his eight-under-Par, Group 3 profile which featured a 22.33 foot SL that was more than a foot shorter than average. There’s a hot, pricey yearling in here that’s going to take all the money, but you might be able to hook up Bad Hombre with him—or beat him. Good Luck!